Welcome to Nofinity

• The analyst examines Bitcoin's current position within the 4‑year cycle.
• Upcoming conference 'Investing Through the Cycles' in Miami this November is promoted.

• Bitcoin tends to form a low and a high approximately every 4 years – similar to the S&P 500.
• A 4‑year cycle does not make Bitcoin a bad investment; it reflects human psychology and liquidity patterns.
• The cycle refers to lows, not necessarily to highs.

• Measured from the last low (2022), we are on day 1,354; previous cycle bottoms occurred around days 1,430–1,440. We are approaching the expected cycle bottom.
• Measured from the peak, we are 304 days into the bear market; the average bottom is at 406 days – about ¾ of the way through.
• Historical bottoms: January 2015, December 2018, November 2022. An October 2026 bottom is plausible.

• The macro environment (three rate cuts, end of QT) strongly resembles 2019.
• Back then, there was also no rotation into altcoins and the top occurred during market apathy.

• The 50‑, 100‑, and 200‑week moving averages show exactly the same pattern as in the previous three bear markets: loss of the 50, then the 100, then a test of the 200.
• This time is not different – the charts are clear.

• We are in the final third of the bear market. Further downside is possible, but the long‑term outlook remains positive.
• Dollar‑cost averaging (DCA) is a sensible strategy for investors with a long‑term horizon.
• Critics of the 4‑year cycle will likely embrace it again once the bottom is in.

The Bitcoin price has surged from $68,000 to $87,000 in just two weeks, approaching the predicted October target of $90,000. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing strong inflows, and long-term holders have significantly reduced their selling, which is considered a bullish signal. The price has broken through the 50-week moving average, suggesting further gains, while institutional investors are increasingly using MicroStrategy to gain exposure to Bitcoin. The purchasing power of the US dollar continues to decline due to inflation.

If building your own trading bot feels overwhelming, there are professional developers who have done it for free on GitHub. This video covers my top three repositories for executing trades, along with setup and usage tips.

• Function: Free, open-source crypto trading bot in Python, supporting all major exchanges and controlled via web UI or Telegram.
• Features: Backtesting, plotting, money management, and machine learning for strategy optimization.
• Key Point: Beginner-friendly with pre-built parameters and risk settings. Also supports stocks, commodities, and FX via exchanges like Binance or Hyperliquid.
• Live Trading: Control via Telegram commands (e.g., /performance, /start, /stop). Includes built-in backtesting with historical data and a dry run feature.
• Conclusion: Perfect for those wanting a ready-to-use solution without deep programming.

• Function: Personal trading agent with self-improving features to generate and test strategies.
• Features: Answer market questions, backtest, review trades, read institutional filings, run analyst teams, and access a library of over 450 pre-built alpha factors.
• Application: Ideal as a research and strategy development tool before live trading. Can connect to Alpaca for paper trading.
• Example: Tested momentum strategies for NVDA, META, AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN, backtested with realistic fees, and set up paper trading with $100k.

• Function: AI trading terminal for stocks, commodities, forex, and crypto.
• Features: Autopilot mode, no need for personal hardware – everything runs on their servers. Provides a dashboard with liquidation maps, order books, signal matrix, and orchestration.
• Application: Create and execute strategies directly via the web interface on Hyperliquid or other exchanges.
• Advantage: Very user-friendly as the infrastructure is pre-built.

• Recommendation: Try all three repos as they serve different purposes. You can combine tools, e.g., use Vibe Trading for strategy development and Freak Trade for execution.
• Tip: Experiment with paper trading to test strategies risk-free. This is the best way to learn and improve AI trading.
• Additional Info: For setup guides and community access, check the description.

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