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📉 Bitcoin: Using On-Chain Metrics To Identify Market Cycle Bottoms 🚀

This video analyzes how on-chain metrics can identify Bitcoin market cycle bottoms, focusing on the Percentage of Supply in Profit/Loss and the derived Risk Metric. Here are the key points:

• Historical Pattern: When the Percentage of Bitcoin Supply in Profit/Loss crosses the zero line (i.e., most coins are at a loss), a cycle bottom historically follows within 1 to 4 months.
• Current Status: This crossover has recently occurred. This suggests the market is approaching a cycle low, though aftershocks (like in 2018/2022 where the crossover happened twice) are possible.

• Normalization: The 'Percent Supply in Loss' indicator is normalized to a value between 0 and 1 to create a risk metric.
• Current Value: The current on-chain risk value is 0.18.
• Interpretation: Historically, Bitcoin spends very little time below 0.2. This often happens in midterm years (like the current one) and signals an optimal accumulation phase.

• Similarities to 2019 (not 2021):
  • Rate Cuts & QT End: Bitcoin peaked about 2 months before the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT), exactly like in 2019.
  • No Altcoin Rotation: There was no significant shift from Bitcoin to altcoins (as in 2021).
  • Apathetic Top: The current cycle's top was flat and apathetic, similar to 2019.
• Outlook: The speaker sees the current phase as the third and final stage of the bear market. The bottom is expected to be reached this year, with October 2025 as the most likely month.

• The speaker emphasizes that no news (geopolitics, interest rates, regulation) is needed for this analysis. On-chain data alone provides a clear macro perspective.
• Recommendation: Focus on accumulation while the risk metric is low and the bottom is forming.

• MVRV Z-Score: A metric to assess market valuation vs. realized value.
• Accumulation: Buying phase.
• Capitulation: Phase of panic selling/peak fear.

Note: This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

• Many variables affect extraction: pouring speed, height, laminar vs. turbulent flow, contact points, etc.
• Even seemingly consistent pouring often leads to inconsistent results.

• A device that maintains constant water flow – regardless of pouring technique.
• Consists of a water reservoir and a chamber below with a dispersion screen.
• Water accumulates and drips at a steady, predictable rate (max. ~1.5 g/s) onto the coffee bed.
• Similar to a Melodrip, but with fixed flow – no speeding up or slowing down.

• Prevents clogging: Gentle saturation reduces fines migration, improving filtration.
• Cleaner cups: The coffee bed acts as an additional filter, enhancing clarity and reducing bitterness.
• Reproducibility: One variable (pour rate) is eliminated; focus shifts to grind size and water temperature.

1. Bare kettle bloom (15 g coffee, 60 g water), then Gabby for the rest (165 g)
   • Water temperature: 88 °C → drops to ~78 °C during brew.
   • Brew time: about 3 minutes.
   • Result: 1.3 TDS, 16% extraction – preferred for light roasts, emphasizing floral and acidic notes.
2. Finer grind, same recipe
   • Extraction rises to 20.5% with 1.65 TDS.
   • More body and sweetness, but less nuance.
3. Single pour (12 g coffee, 200 g water) – to emulate cupping
   • Water temperature 83 °C, very coarse grind, well-rested coffee required.
   • Extraction approx. 17% at 1.15 TDS – very clear flavor separation.

• The Gabby Drip Master A is a tool for consistency – ideal for quality control or when you want to ditch the gooseneck kettle.
• Personal favorite: bloom with bare kettle, then use Gabby – yields the most balanced cups.
• Low extraction (around 16%) is preferred to highlight complexity and vibrancy, but higher extractions are easily achieved with a finer grind.

The case of Liz Barraza: On January 25, 2019, the 29-year-old was shot dead in front of her house in Tomball, Texas. Despite video footage and extensive investigations, the murder remains unsolved.

• Early morning: Liz is preparing a garage sale; her husband Sergio leaves for work at 6:48 AM.
• 6:47 AM: A dark Nissan Frontier (2013–2019) parks nearby; a disguised person gets out.
• Shots: After a brief conversation (Liz says a friendly

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This video explains how to actually build and preserve multi-generational wealth using crypto. It highlights the key differences between wealth creation and wealth preservation, offering a clear strategy.

🔍 The Four Critical Questions for Project Selection

• Real users? Does the project have active users?
• Reason to exist? Would it be missed if it disappeared?
• Demand independent of token price? Does utility remain during sideways markets?
• Value flow to the token? Is there a mechanical reason the token benefits?

Examples:

• Hyperliquid: Strong fee revenue ($419M in H1 2026), automatic buybacks. A real "cash flow" asset.
• Zcash: Minimal revenue, focused on private payments with fixed supply. Seen as "insurance against Bitcoin" (Naval Ravikant). Both pass the test of demand independent of price.

📉 Psychology and Risk Management

• Concentration over fragmentation: Holding 30 assets is like lottery tickets. Own a few strong projects.
• Drawdowns are normal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically dropped over 80%. Those without conviction sell at the bottom.
• Don't marry old favorites: New cycles reward new projects. Example: Cardano (ADA) never reclaimed its 2021 high, while Robinhood Chain attracted billions in volume within two months.

⚖️ Attack vs. Defense: The Right Balance

• Early stage: Higher risk for big gains (aggression).
• Later stage: More Bitcoin as a base (compressing drawdowns: from 93% to 53%). Bitcoin allocation should increase as portfolio grows.
• Take profits: No one knows the exact top. Scale out gradually.
• Never go to zero: Position size so you can't be wiped out.

🏛️ Estate & Family Planning

• Single key = single point of failure: Up to 3.8M Bitcoin are already lost. Legal structures (trusts, wills) and tax planning are essential.
• Williams Group study: 70% of wealth is gone by the second generation, 90% by the third. Main reasons: lack of communication (60%) and unprepared heirs (25%).
• History lesson: Rockefeller used trusts and preserved billions. Vanderbilt trusted judgment alone – the wealth vanished within a few generations.

Conclusion: With patience, a repeatable process, and smart structures, crypto can truly create generational wealth. Avoiding psychological pitfalls and reducing risk in time offers the best chances.

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