DER AKTIONÄR TV|12. Mai
BITCOIN und ALTCOINS: Die ersten Coins brechen nach oben aus
Crypto Market: First Signs of Life and Optimistic Outlook
This analysis discusses the current state of the crypto market. While Bitcoin and major altcoins are still trading sideways, some smaller coins are already showing clear breakout movements. The overall sentiment is considered positive, supported by political and regulatory developments in the U.S.
Market Overview and Macroeconomic Context
- U.S. Stock Markets: Major indices, especially the Nasdaq, continue to hit new all-time highs, driving the markets. However, this dynamic is interpreted as a possible end-phase move of a bull market, as it is decoupled from the real economy (weak consumer).
- Fed Policy: Labor market data is mixed, and inflation remains a topic. The appointment of the new Fed Chair (Kevin Warsh) is eagerly awaited.
- Geopolitical Risks: The Iran conflict remains a factor of uncertainty. A 10-point plan regarding access to the Strait of Hormuz led to a brief Bitcoin correction and an increase in the oil price.
Bitcoin and Major Altcoins
- Bitcoin: The price has been moving in a range around $80,000 - $85,000 for 94 days. A breakout is imminent, but another correction to the $60,000 - $65,000 area is possible. The target of a relief rally is within the retracement area up to ~$110,000. A key event is Nvidia's quarterly earnings report.
- Ethereum (ETH): Fundamental developments are positive, led by BlackRock expanding its presence on the Ethereum blockchain (tokenized money market funds). Technically, ETH has been range-bound since 2024 and has room to move higher. A rise towards the last all-time high (approx. $4,800) is possible.
- XRP: Showed a positive collaboration with JP Morgan, Mastercard, and Ondo for a cross-border settlement of tokenized U.S. Treasuries on the XRP Ledger. Technically, a symmetrical triangle is forming, with an imminent resolution (up or down). A breakout to the upside could be powerful.
Early Indicators and Altcoin Rally
- Ondo (ONDO): The coin experienced a 75% increase in 10 days and is a tokenizer for Real World Assets (RWAs). This breakout is seen as an early sign of life.
- Sui (SUI): After a long sideways movement, it saw a 40% increase in one week. The coin has prominent advocates (Raul Pal) and is considered an important leading indicator for a potential altcoin rally.
Conclusion: The Big Picture
Despite the muted price action in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the sentiment is at an all-time high. Key factors include:
- Pro-Crypto Regulation in the U.S.: New SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated that the entire U.S. capital market should be moved onto the blockchain within two years ("on chain").
- Institutional Adoption: BlackRock, JP Morgan, and Mastercard are actively involved in tokenization and using crypto infrastructure.
- Legislative Clarity: The "Genius Act" (stablecoins) and the "Clarity Act" are nearing passage.
The divergence between positive fundamentals and current weak price action will eventually resolve. As planned applications come to fruition, bringing billions in volume to blockchains, prices will follow. The time until then should be used for strategic accumulation.
