Bitcoin2Go|08. Juni
Bitcoin & Stocks: Is the Next Crash Coming? - AI Bubble, SpaceX IPO & Escalation
Market Analysis & Portfolio Update (CW X, 2024)
Bitcoin & Crypto Market: Stabilization After Brutal Crash
- Bitcoin is trading above $63,000 after a severe weekend crash that briefly hit a -20% intraday loss. The critical support at $60,000 has been confirmed for now.
- Structural weakness is evident: the sell-off resembles the FTX event in intensity, without a comparable catalyst. The downward momentum is similar to January's move.
- Correlation with stocks is currently broken: the divergence from tech stocks is at an all-time high. AI remains the more compelling narrative, with crypto taking a backseat.
- Spot ETF outflows continue: billions have flowed out over the past 20 days, with little sign of reversal.
- Personal buys: The speaker bought near ~$60,000 (1.5% of cash position) but expects lower prices. The strategic buying zone is around $50,000 and below.
- Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): Sold 32 BTC—a panic signal, as CEO Michael Saylor previously claimed they would never sell. The structure of their preferred shares (e.g., STRK) carries risks. The speaker advises against buying Strategy stock and recommends direct Bitcoin exposure.
- Ethereum & Altcoins: Outflows dominate. Altcoin ETFs show virtually no real demand.
Stock Markets: AI Bubble Under Pressure
- S&P 500 saw its second sharp correction (especially on Friday), triggered by:
- Strong labor market: Prevents expected Fed rate cuts.
- AI euphoria cracking: Heavy profit-taking; leveraged ETF products (e.g., 3x Semiconductors) caused liquidation cascades. Trading volume in AI ETFs surpassed Apple and Amazon combined.
- Geopolitical tensions: Israeli strikes against Iran risk escalation (Trump 'disappointed'). Oil prices spiked immediately.
- Consequences: Money is flowing into money market funds (cash). The Fear & Greed Index is back to 'Extreme Fear'. The market remains fragile.
- Outlook: Further volatility expected, especially with the SpaceX IPO (Friday) and US inflation data (Wednesday). The possibility of rate hikes is back on the table.
Portfolio & Strategy
- Current allocation:
- 83% cash in the stock/ETF portfolio (All-World ETF).
- AI positions (Marvel, Mic, Heinix) expanded (~2/3 of target position). These showed gains of up to 100% but are now suffering losses.
- Additional purchases were triggered for most AI stocks after May 12.
- Geopolitics: The escalation between Israel and Iran, along with the upcoming SpaceX IPO, could trigger further selling. The speaker remains cautious and keeps high cash reserves.
Special Events & Warnings
- SpaceX IPO: Valuation at $1.75 trillion (top 7 company globally). Retail investors can participate via Kraken (tokenized shares)—high risks (oversubscription, price range $135–185, delayed tradability). The speaker is staying on the sidelines.
- AI Bubble: Warning against leveraged retail bets. Major players continue to invest in AI, but volatility is extreme.
- Altcoins/Solana/Crypto: Beware of influencers ('exit liquidity'). Privacy coins (Siacash) remain risky despite performance (exploit vulnerabilities). Hyperliquid shows real utility, but many alts trend towards zero long-term.
- Rate Hikes & Inflation: Rising inflation and a hawkish Fed could further damage growth stories (AI, crypto). The oil price premium is real.
