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Bitcoin Reaches the Bear Market Resistance Band

In this video, Ben analyzes Bitcoin's recent rally up to the Bear Market Resistance Band. After a long period of low volatility, Bitcoin is testing this key level again.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin has been trading between the 200-week moving average (support) and the resistance band for months.
• The main question: Is this a sustainable breakout or just another bear market rally?
• Historical comparisons: Similar rallies occurred in 2014, 2018, and 2022 – often followed by further declines.
• Indicators: The MVRV Z-Score has not yet dipped below zero, and the realized price has not been undercut, which was common in previous bear markets.
• Strategy: Ben recommends a Dollar-Cost Average (DCA) approach starting in July to avoid timing the bottom perfectly.
• Outlook: A sustained break above the resistance band and the 200-day moving average would be bullish. Failure could lead to lower lows. The key time frame is the end of the year – if no new low occurs, a bull market for 2027 becomes more likely.

Why Heating is Getting More Expensive (And What You Can Do About It)

The Current Situation: Are Heating Costs Exploding?

• Gas price increase: The gas price has risen by two and a half times since January 2025.
• Main reason: The conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's shipped oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes.
• Global impact: Although Germany is hardly directly affected, global market prices are rising for everyone.
• Gas storage: The targeted fill level of 80% before winter is not expected to be reached.

Specific Costs for a Sample Apartment (70 m²)

Energy Source	Projected Costs 2026	Price Change vs. Previous Year
Heating Oil	1,275 €	+24 %
District Heating	1,310 €	hardly more expensive
Wood Pellets	increasing	+17 %
Natural Gas (existing customers)	decreasing (temporarily)	-4 %
Heat Pump	735 €	+3 %

Important: The average gas price is falling temporarily for existing customers because utilities purchased cheaply and the gas storage levy was dropped. However, new customer tariffs are over a third more expensive. Price increases of 10-20% are expected for existing customers at the turn of the year.

Additional Cost Drivers

• Network charges: Make up about one-fifth of the gas price and have risen by 10%.
• CO₂ price: Was 55 € per ton in 2025, currently between 55 and 65 € per ton in 2026.

What Can You Do? 10 Saving Tips

Free & Easy Tips

1. Bleed your radiators: Especially important on upper floors. Air in the system reduces efficiency. Easily done with a radiator key from a hardware store.
2. Ventilate properly: Open windows wide several times a day instead of leaving them tilted constantly. A hygrometer helps monitor humidity and prevent mold.
3. Heat strategically: Every degree you lower the thermostat saves roughly 6% heating energy. Heat rooms according to their use (see recommendations from the German Environment Agency).
4. Circulate the air (with high ceilings): A fan on a low setting distributes warm air more effectively in the room.
5. Close stairwell and apartment doors: Prevents cold drafts and heat loss.

Tips with a Small Budget & Effort

6. Seal windows and doors: Check for drafts (e.g., with a strip of paper) and seal them with draft excluder tape from a hardware store. Savings: approx. 13 € per window per year.
7. Use a low-flow shower head: Reduces hot water consumption (approx. 12% of energy use) and saves money.

Financial & Strategic Tips

8. Secure current prices: If you have your own gas contract, switch to a tariff with a price guarantee to lock in the current rate for a year.
9. Check your utility bill!
   • Deadline: Your landlord must present the bill for 2025 by Dec 31, 2026. If it is late (due to their fault), you don't have to pay the balance.
   • Apportionment: Check if costs are distributed fairly.
   • Disallowed costs: Repair costs, bank charges, or postage cannot be passed on by the landlord.
   • Right to reduce payment: If heating costs are not billed based on consumption, you can reduce your share by 15%.
10. Adjust monthly advance payments: Increase your monthly payments or build a small reserve in a savings account to avoid unexpected large bills.

Conclusion

You are not helpless against the price increases. With the tips mentioned alone, an average of 465 € per year per apartment can be saved. Act now, because your consumption this winter will determine the amount of your additional payment in 2027/2028.

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Further Information:

• The full interview with energy economist Malte Küper is available on the Finanzus podcast.
• A detailed guide on checking your utility bill is available in the newsletter.

The Ultimate Technique for Perfect Moka Pot Coffee

This video presents a refined brewing method for the Moka pot (stovetop espresso maker), based on modern coffee science and the physics of the device. It aims to improve the traditional technique without losing its essence. Key points:

• Water temperature: Start with room temperature water (exception: stainless steel Moka → ca. 50 °C). This prolongs extraction and gently releases volatile aromas at 50‑60 °C.
• Grind size: Use a medium‑coarse to coarse grind (similar to a coarse V60). Finer grinds create too much pressure and push temperatures above 110 °C – harming flavor.
• Dosage & ratio: Fill the basket level (not heaped). Water in the base just below the valve. A ratio of about 1:5 (water:coffee) in the base yields roughly 1:3 in the cup.
• Aeropress filter: A paper filter on top of the coffee bed produces clearer coffee and removes sediment.
• Active flow control: Once coffee emerges, briefly lift the pot from the heat or lower the heat to slow flow to about 1 gram per second. This keeps temperature lower and extraction even.
• Avoid the Stromboli effect: Stop brewing before heavy sputtering (air bubbles in the riser tube). The final sputtering often adds bitterness and leathery notes – better to discard it.
• Adjust aftertaste: If the Moka tastes too sour or intense, dilute with hot water. This reduces perceived acidity and unfolds aromas.

Conclusion: The classic Moka pot can produce exceptional coffee if you actively control temperature, start with cool water, and avoid over‑fine grinding. This technique requires attention but rewards you with a much better cup – even with light roasts.

Summary: Compak Fino – Single-Dosing Grinder with Character

The Compak Fino is a Spanish single-dosing grinder with a 63 mm conical burr set. It comes in two versions: with scale (approx. €790) and without scale (approx. €599). The scale version also includes LED lighting.

Single-Dosing & Retention

• Principle: Weigh beans before grinding, add to grinder, and aim for minimal retention.
• Retention is phenomenal low – only 0.1 g in our test – one of the best values ever measured.
• The built-in scale shows output weight, but is considered not essential. An external scale for pre-weighing is sufficient.

Speed & Noise

• Speed: 18 g in about 15 seconds (360 RPM) – not the fastest, but acceptable.
• Noise: Only 78 decibels while grinding – very quiet for a grinder.

Grind Adjustment

• Excellent dial: Fine markings allow precise adjustments. One line changes extraction time by 1–2 seconds.
• Repeatability is not perfect: returning to a previous setting can cause 4–5 seconds deviation. Tip: always approach from the same direction (e.g., from coarse).

Particle Distribution & Taste

• Conical burrs produce a relatively narrow main peak – comparable to the Niche, but slightly cleaner.
• Best suited for: medium to dark roasts. Delivers full-bodied, sweet espresso with well-integrated acidity. Light roasts are possible but less clear.
• The grinder is easygoing and great for exploring different coffees.

Cleaning & Handling

• Magnetic chute is removable. Burr chamber accessible with tools (hex screw).
• Anti-popcorning lid prevents beans from jumping.
• Regular cleaning: once a month (more often for dark roasts).
• Minimal static; the heavy dosing cup (250 g) stays put, but coffee should be fluffed after tapping.

Conclusion

The Compak Fino is a high-quality, durable entry-level grinder. It is quiet, precise, and delivers balanced flavor. The premium for the scale seems unjustified – the version without the scale is the smarter buy.

In short: Slow, quiet, almost zero retention – a recommended single-dosing grinder.

From ICO Hype to Real Economics: How Crypto Has Fundamentally Changed

The video by The Coin Bureau explains the profound shift in the crypto industry: from speculative ICOs to protocols that generate actual revenue. The focus is on the question that now defines every token: What does this protocol actually do, and who pays for it?

The ICO Era: Stories over Substance

• 2017: A whitepaper, a logo, and a Telegram group were enough to raise millions – without a product or testnet.
• ICOs raised over $20 billion, but four out of five projects turned out to be scams or failed.
• Regulatory wave: The SEC declared DAO tokens as securities, China banned ICOs, and Telegram had to return funds.

DeFi Summer 2020: Activity Yes, But No Value Creation

• Liquidity Mining: Protocols like Compound lured users with freshly minted tokens (e.g., COMP) – essentially “renting” users.
• SushiSwap pulled over $1 billion from Uniswap by offering incentives.
• Core problem: Even the top protocols (Uniswap, Aave, Compound) didn’t pass fees to token holders – only governance rights, no revenue share.

The 2022 Collapse: Returns Without a Source

• Terra/LUNA offered 20% yields on UST – the peg collapsed, wiping out billions.
• Celsius froze withdrawals, FTX collapsed – in all cases, there was no real revenue source.
• Lesson: The question “Where does the yield come from?” became central.

Today: Protocols with Real Business Models

• Stablecoins: Tether (net profit $1.5B in Q2 2024) and Circle ($668M) invest in US treasuries and keep the interest – an extremely profitable model.
• Tokenization of RWAs: BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and Ondo list tokenized stocks and ETFs – bringing traditional financial products onto the blockchain.
• Hyperliquid as a pioneer: This perp DEX generated $429M in revenue (Jan–Sep) through fees, with up to 99% going to an Assistance Fund that buys and burns HYPE tokens. Additionally, 90% of USDC reserve yields feed buybacks.
• Fee Switches: Uniswap, Aave, Jupiter, and Sky introduce fee mechanisms that pass revenue to token holders – a paradigm shift.

Conclusion: The Best Product Wins

• Institutional investors now understand dashboards with fees, reserves, and buyback programs – this aligns with traditional finance logic (revenue, reserves, capital returns).
• Competition: In 2017, the best marketing won; in 2021, the most generous token emissions; today, the best product with real revenue wins.
• Question to viewers: Is revenue the only criterion? Or do story-driven projects still have a chance?

Portfolio Allocation: Bonds and Cash ($1,000,000 Example)

This video analyzes how much of a $1,000,000 portfolio should be invested in bonds or cash. The focus is on the current market situation, risks, and the strategy of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

1. Cash Holdings: The Berkshire Hathaway Example

• Berkshire's Strategy: Berkshire currently holds $360 billion in cash (about 35% of assets). This occurred mainly when yields on 3-month Treasury bills rose to over 5%.
• Market Timing: Buffett sold Apple shares to secure the safer, risk-free income of 5%. This is considered market timing, but with the nuance of risk minimization ("Risk first, then return").

2. The Current Yield Environment (U.S. Treasuries)

• High Yields: The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes is around 5.2% – a multi-decade high (last seen in 2006). 20 to 30-year bonds offer 5.5% to 5.6%.
• Safe Yield vs. Equity Risk:
  • Investing $1,000,000 in 10-year Treasuries yields $52,000 per year (nominally safe).
  • If reinvested, this results in $1,600,000 in 10 years (at 5% yield).
  • In contrast: The S&P 500 lost up to 50% between 2000 and 2009 ("10 years minus 50%").

3. The Inflation Counter-Argument

• Real Return: High inflation (approx. 28% purchasing power loss of the USD since 2022) has eroded the nominal returns of bonds. Inflation-adjusted real returns were often zero.
• Future Outlook: Due to high U.S. government debt and rising interest payments, higher inflation is expected. Bonds therefore offer more of a nominal protection than a real increase in value.

4. Maturities, Risk, and Return Opportunities

• Short-term (3 months): Low risk, high liquidity. Must be reinvested after 3 months. This is Berkshire's preferred method.
• Long-term (10-40 years): Higher risk, but chance of capital gains:
  • If interest rates fall, the prices of long-term bonds rise (e.g., +30% plus yield during rate cuts).
  • If interest rates rise, prices fall (e.g., -50% in ETF losses since 2020). Predicting interest rate movements is considered extremely difficult.

5. High-Yield Bonds (Junk Bonds)

• Yield: Currently around 8%.
• Risk: These are junk bonds. Howard Marks estimates that 4% of issuers default annually. The spread to the 10-year Treasury (5.2%) is relatively small at 2.8%. During crises (like 2009), 50% price crashes can occur.
• Conclusion: The presenter rejects junk bonds in his own portfolio, as the risk erodes the return too much.

6. Strategic Allocation: Market Timing vs. Value Investing

• Not Pure Timing: The approach is to be an absolute return investor. One seeks investments with 8-10% returns and a high margin of safety ("Buffett and Munger target"). If not found, one stays in bonds.
• Presenter's Personal Recommendation:
  • Not a Cash Fan: He is 95% invested in stocks (value stocks). He believes he can always find an equity return of 10% or more.
  • For Other Investors:
    • Value Experts: 80-100% in stocks.
    • Less Certain Investors: 50% in bonds (short to long term). This provides peace of mind and allows for reallocation when stock prices fall.
    • 60/40 Portfolio: The classic allocation (60% stocks, 40% bonds), which has performed poorly recently, could perform very well again over the next 10-15 years.

7. Conclusion and Call to Action

• The Core Question: What is more important to you: safety, liquidity, and peace of mind, or the higher return potential of stocks?
• Decision Basis: If you can no longer assess the intrinsic value of your stocks (e.g., due to the AI hype), bonds are a sensible alternative.
• Call to Action: Write in the comments how this strategy fits your personal situation.

📉 Something Will Plummet Soon

According to JP Morgan, oil flows from crisis regions have already recovered to 98% of pre-war levels. The oil crisis might resolve faster than expected – the oil price is at risk of falling.

📊 Bond Madness & Bear Concerns

• 10-year US yields at levels not seen since 2002 (above 5.2%).
• Bears warn: High yields + rising credit spreads = risk for financial markets and weak links (France, Italy).
• US consumer confidence at its lowest since 2014, but spending remains solid.
• Market breadth is shrinking – many stocks below their 200-day moving average.

🐂 Bulls Counter with AI, Inflation & Seasonality

• US inflation data better than expected (PCE at 3.4%, Core at 3.0%).
• Rate hike probability for October now only 21.6% (FedWatch).
• AI boom continues: Trump pledges no regulation, OpenAI and Google report strong numbers.
• Seasonality favors rising markets (October–December historically strong).
• Labor market cools (29K jobs vs. 90K expected) – Goldilocks scenario.

🤯 Mindblow: What Many Miss

• Oil price: Shorts on Treasuries are extreme – potential short squeeze could boost stocks.
• AI investments need only 60% of existing order backlog to achieve 15% returns.
• Rates may already be too high – data centers boom, private construction collapses.
• Billman's thesis: Higher rates fuel inflation (vicious cycle via AI investments).
• S&P 500 valuations are normal (+10% vs. +16% during Dotcom bubble).

💡 Money Ideas & Portfolio Changes

• Bought: Credo Technology (AI infrastructure) and Burlington Stores.
• Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List: includes Microsoft, Amazon, UnitedHealth, Vertex, Delta, Applied Materials.
• Bitcoin: Volatility decreased – bear market seems over.
• Defense stocks: Russia increases military budget by 27% – potential opportunity.
• Risk: Companies with high variable debt (financials, consumer cyclical, industrials).