Benjamin Cowen|19. Mai
Bitcoin Rejected off the 200D
Bitcoin Rejected at the 200-Day Moving Average
- The 200-day moving average acts as resistance in bear markets. Historically, rejections lead to further declines.
- Historical patterns: 2014, 2018, 2022 – similar rejections led to lows in Q2 or Q4.
- Outlook: Weakness until Q3, with a potential low in October. Two possible paths:
- Bearish: Decline into May, then a June low, followed by a counter-trend rally and another sell-off in Q4.
- More bullish path: Bitcoin drops into June, rallies to the 382 level, then sells off into Q4.
- Stablecoin dominance is rising, typical for bear markets, indicating further outflows into stablecoins.
- Comparison with the altcoin bear market: The optimistic view is a low in October 2026; the pessimistic view is an end to the business cycle in 2026 that disrupts the Bitcoin bull market.
- Bitcoin's 2026 performance so far mirrors prior midterm years – currently above average, potential drop to ~$51,000–$52,000 by summer.
- Other markets (gold, silver, energy) have outperformed Bitcoin in 2026, and the current focus is there.
