Benjamin Cowen|06. Juni
Bitcoin Sweeps The February 2026 Low
Bitcoin Sweeps the February 2026 Low
The analyst compares the current bear market to previous cycles (2018, 2019, 2022) and highlights structural similarities.
Key Points:
- February & June Lows: Bitcoin set a low in February 2026 and has now swept it 17 weeks later in June – similar to 2018.
- Bear Market Rallies: Bitcoin rallied to the 200-day moving average and was rejected – a typical bear market pattern.
- Normal Midterm Year Behavior: Year-to-date ROI is about -32 %, exactly the average of previous midterm years.
- Difference to 2017/2018: No euphoric top (apathetic top), so no rotation into altcoins, making the bear feel different.
- Similarities to 2019: Bitcoin did not reach the terminal price before QT ended, retail investors stayed away.
Future Scenarios (June–October 2026):
- Mix of 2018 and 2019: Neither a pure pandemic crash nor a simple 2018 replay.
- Potential Lows:
- Holds $60K → another low in October (lower than June)
- Drops below $60K → possible cycle bottom earlier or October low
- Capitulation like 2020 → October low as a higher low
- Realised Price (~$53K–$54K): Historically breached in bear markets; timing uncertain.
- Strategy: DCA after the June low – second half of midterm years historically offered better entries.
Conclusion:
The current low is not yet confirmed. The analyst expects another likely lower low in October unless a massive capitulation occurs. Patterns from 2018 and 2019 help, but 2026 has its own characteristics.
