Benjamin Cowen|14. Mai
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
Bitcoin: Bear Market & Potential Scenarios
The analyst argues that Bitcoin is still in a bear market, drawing parallels to the cycles of 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2022. The focus is on current price action, technical resistance, and historical patterns to forecast the coming months.
Key Observations & Resistances:
- 200-Day Moving Average (200DMA): Bitcoin is currently struggling with this key moving average. In past bear markets (2014, 2019), it briefly broke above it before falling again. In other cycles (2018, 2022), the breakout failed.
- Fibonacci Retracement (0.382 Level): A break above the 200DMA could propel the price to the 0.382 Fib retracement level, currently around $85,000. This level marked a local top in 2014 and 2018.
- Weekly Rhythm: A recurring pattern of early-week rallies and weekend pullbacks suggests a hesitant recovery.
Comparison to 2019 (the Boldest Scenario):
- Progression: Early-year correction → Rally to 200DMA → Pullback → Second rally.
- Difference: Unlike other bear markets, the 2019 bounce extended from the 0.382 to the 0.5 Fib level.
- Implication: If this pattern repeats, a rally to the high $80,000s or even $90,000s is possible.
Bear Market Rallies are Traps:
- Historical Precedent: In 2014, 2018, and 2022, such rallies were followed by new lows later in the year.
- June as a Pivot: The month of June is historically a turning point. A rising price into June → Marks a top (like 2014/). A falling price into June → Marks a bottom (like 2018/).
- Q4 Prediction: The analyst expects renewed downside in Q4 2026, with a potential cycle low in October.
Underperformance vs. Other Assets:
Bitcoin is trailing other assets in 2026:
- -14% vs. the S&P 500
- -13% vs. Gold
- -28% vs. Energy stocks
- -21% vs. Silver
Key Takeaway: The analyst advises not to chase bear market rallies and suggests favoring assets that traditionally perform better during midterm election years.
