Benjamin Cowen|10. Juli
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation – Summary
Benjamin Cowan analyzes the current Bitcoin market situation using the 4-year cycle and seasonality. He emphasizes that no one can predict short-term moves, but historical patterns help understand long-term trends.
Key Points:
- Cycle Analysis: Bitcoin typically forms lows in February of midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022). The current pattern resembles 2018 with a retest of summer lows.
- First-Half Underperformance: Bitcoin underperforms other asset classes (gold, S&P 500, energy, silver, Microsoft) – confirming the thesis to ignore Bitcoin in H1.
- Indicators Not Fully Reset: MVRV Z-Score remains above zero; Realized Price (~53K) and Balance Price (~38K) not yet reached – potential further downside.
- Social Interest & Altcoin Market: Interest has dropped drastically; many altcoins lack fundamental value and will continue to decline. Bitcoin dominance rises slowly due to high stablecoin dominance.
- Outlook: July is historically positive, but August to October weak. A volume spike at cycle end is still missing. Cowan expects a resolution in Q4, likely a low in November – hence his conference timing.
- Strategy: DCA Bitcoin in H2 of the midterm year, long-term horizon, ignore narratives, trust the 4-year cycle.
Conclusion: Cowan advises avoiding short-term panic and preparing for the next bull market starting in 2027.
