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• Bitcoin is trading below $63,000 and shows initial green signals. The 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is a strong resistance – a breakout could lead to a recovery towards $74,000.
• Short-term a recovery rally is possible, but a Hot Crypto Summer remains unlikely. The market may consolidate sideways, and deeper lows ($55,000–$50,000) are not ruled out.
• Realized P/L Ratios have turned negative for the first time in a long while – a signal that historically indicated a bottom, but currently no sustainable trend reversal.

• The German Ministry of Finance plans to tax crypto gains as capital assets (25% withholding tax). The holding period would be eliminated – affecting long-term investors.
• Key details are missing: effective date, grandfathering, loss offsetting. No concrete bill exists yet. The announcement is legally questionable as Bitcoin was classified as non-equity-like by the Federal Fiscal Court in 2023.
• No rush to action – developments are to be watched. A separate video with a tax expert is planned.

• Clarity Act (USA): The last chance for a Senate vote is August 7 before the summer break. Chances are slim, which could weigh on the crypto market.
• MiCA (EU): The transition period has ended. Some platforms are restricting services, others operate normally. Regulated exchanges (e.g., Kraken) are a safe alternative for fiat on/off ramps and tax compliance.

• The S&P 500 is near all-time highs, but market breadth is weakening. Tech stocks (especially semiconductors) show extreme volatility with double-digit percentage swings – reminiscent of the dot-com bubble.
• Michael Barry warns of a bursting bubble. A 25% correction is discussed, but a rebound after the correction is possible as long as corporate earnings remain strong.
• Korea: Overleveraged positions in chip stocks (Samsung, SK Hynix) could trigger a shockwave. The KOSPI index is extremely volatile.

• The speaker is 90% in cash (money market + cash) and monthly invests in an ACWI ETF (MSCI All World). Larger corrections would be used to buy the dip.
• Individual stocks like Lumentum (−20%) are underperforming, while Marvell and Micron have gained from dips. The strategy is long-term (10–15 years).

• US labor market data disappointed: only 60,000 new jobs (expected 110,000). The unemployment rate fell – contradictory signals. Rate cuts remain unlikely for now.
• Altcoins: Lido (+70% in 30 days) due to tokenomics changes, Hyper Liquid above $70. A DeFi hack ($6M at Summer.fi) highlights ongoing security risks.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recovered slightly from deep fear but remains neutral. Demand is at lows – without a new impulse, no sustainable bull run.

The crypto market remains in a bear market, but recovery jumps are possible. Regulatory developments (Germany, USA, EU) are crucial. Caution is advised for stocks – a correction could also drag crypto down. Long-term strategy and cash reserves are currently the safest approach.

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Why Heating is Getting More Expensive (And What You Can Do About It)

• Gas price increase: The gas price has risen by two and a half times since January 2025.
• Main reason: The conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's shipped oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes.
• Global impact: Although Germany is hardly directly affected, global market prices are rising for everyone.
• Gas storage: The targeted fill level of 80% before winter is not expected to be reached.

Important: The average gas price is falling temporarily for existing customers because utilities purchased cheaply and the gas storage levy was dropped. However, new customer tariffs are over a third more expensive. Price increases of 10-20% are expected for existing customers at the turn of the year.

• Network charges: Make up about one-fifth of the gas price and have risen by 10%.
• CO₂ price: Was 55 € per ton in 2025, currently between 55 and 65 € per ton in 2026.

Free & Easy Tips

1. Bleed your radiators: Especially important on upper floors. Air in the system reduces efficiency. Easily done with a radiator key from a hardware store.
2. Ventilate properly: Open windows wide several times a day instead of leaving them tilted constantly. A hygrometer helps monitor humidity and prevent mold.
3. Heat strategically: Every degree you lower the thermostat saves roughly 6% heating energy. Heat rooms according to their use (see recommendations from the German Environment Agency).
4. Circulate the air (with high ceilings): A fan on a low setting distributes warm air more effectively in the room.
5. Close stairwell and apartment doors: Prevents cold drafts and heat loss.

Tips with a Small Budget & Effort

6. Seal windows and doors: Check for drafts (e.g., with a strip of paper) and seal them with draft excluder tape from a hardware store. Savings: approx. 13 € per window per year.
7. Use a low-flow shower head: Reduces hot water consumption (approx. 12% of energy use) and saves money.

Financial & Strategic Tips

8. Secure current prices: If you have your own gas contract, switch to a tariff with a price guarantee to lock in the current rate for a year.
9. Check your utility bill!
   • Deadline: Your landlord must present the bill for 2025 by Dec 31, 2026. If it is late (due to their fault), you don't have to pay the balance.
   • Apportionment: Check if costs are distributed fairly.
   • Disallowed costs: Repair costs, bank charges, or postage cannot be passed on by the landlord.
   • Right to reduce payment: If heating costs are not billed based on consumption, you can reduce your share by 15%.
10. Adjust monthly advance payments: Increase your monthly payments or build a small reserve in a savings account to avoid unexpected large bills.

You are not helpless against the price increases. With the tips mentioned alone, an average of 465 € per year per apartment can be saved. Act now, because your consumption this winter will determine the amount of your additional payment in 2027/2028.

Further Information:

• The full interview with energy economist Malte Küper is available on the Finanzus podcast.
• A detailed guide on checking your utility bill is available in the newsletter.