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In this video, the speaker argues that the Bitcoin 4-year cycle remains intact, despite claims to the contrary. He refutes common arguments for the cycle's end, using historical data, especially from the S&P 500.

Main Arguments for the Intact Cycle:

• Timing of Lows: Bitcoin's lows continue to occur approximately every four years (e.g., end of 2014, 2018, 2022). The next low is expected for end of 2026. The cycle predicts timing, not price.
• Timing of Highs: Highs also follow the pattern. Bitcoin peaked in the fourth quarter of the halving year (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025) – each time at nearly the same time (day 1062 of the cycle vs. day 1059/1068 in previous cycles).
• Refuting the Apathy Theory: Many argue the cycle is dead because Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria. The speaker shows using the S&P 500 that markets can enter bear markets even after apathetic peaks (e.g., 1966, 1970, 1974).
• Bear Market Rallies Are Not Different: The current 35-36% rally is weaker than the 46% rally in 2022. Historically, similar rallies occurred with comparable duration (e.g., 16 weeks in 2026 vs. 21 weeks in 2022 and 19 weeks in 2018).
• Comparison with the S&P 500: The stock market hitting new highs is not new. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin fell despite rising stocks. A further decline in the S&P 500 in the second half of the year could weigh on Bitcoin.
• Technical Indicators: The stabilization of stablecoin dominance (USDT + USDC) closely resembles the 2022 pattern, where the cycle also remained intact. The rally to the 200-day moving average also failed to reverse the trend in the past (2014, 2018, 2022).

Outlook and Conclusion:

• The speaker expects a further decline for Bitcoin during the summer, with a potential low in October 2026. A retest of the $60,000 level (equivalent to $6,000 in 2018) is likely.
• He acknowledges that the 4-year cycle will eventually break, but current data does not support this. Investors are better off assuming the cycle will continue.
• Alternative investments (e.g., stocks, international funds, metals, energy stocks) might be more attractive in this phase.

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Why Heating is Getting More Expensive (And What You Can Do About It)

• Gas price increase: The gas price has risen by two and a half times since January 2025.
• Main reason: The conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's shipped oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes.
• Global impact: Although Germany is hardly directly affected, global market prices are rising for everyone.
• Gas storage: The targeted fill level of 80% before winter is not expected to be reached.

Important: The average gas price is falling temporarily for existing customers because utilities purchased cheaply and the gas storage levy was dropped. However, new customer tariffs are over a third more expensive. Price increases of 10-20% are expected for existing customers at the turn of the year.

• Network charges: Make up about one-fifth of the gas price and have risen by 10%.
• CO₂ price: Was 55 € per ton in 2025, currently between 55 and 65 € per ton in 2026.

Free & Easy Tips

1. Bleed your radiators: Especially important on upper floors. Air in the system reduces efficiency. Easily done with a radiator key from a hardware store.
2. Ventilate properly: Open windows wide several times a day instead of leaving them tilted constantly. A hygrometer helps monitor humidity and prevent mold.
3. Heat strategically: Every degree you lower the thermostat saves roughly 6% heating energy. Heat rooms according to their use (see recommendations from the German Environment Agency).
4. Circulate the air (with high ceilings): A fan on a low setting distributes warm air more effectively in the room.
5. Close stairwell and apartment doors: Prevents cold drafts and heat loss.

Tips with a Small Budget & Effort

6. Seal windows and doors: Check for drafts (e.g., with a strip of paper) and seal them with draft excluder tape from a hardware store. Savings: approx. 13 € per window per year.
7. Use a low-flow shower head: Reduces hot water consumption (approx. 12% of energy use) and saves money.

Financial & Strategic Tips

8. Secure current prices: If you have your own gas contract, switch to a tariff with a price guarantee to lock in the current rate for a year.
9. Check your utility bill!
   • Deadline: Your landlord must present the bill for 2025 by Dec 31, 2026. If it is late (due to their fault), you don't have to pay the balance.
   • Apportionment: Check if costs are distributed fairly.
   • Disallowed costs: Repair costs, bank charges, or postage cannot be passed on by the landlord.
   • Right to reduce payment: If heating costs are not billed based on consumption, you can reduce your share by 15%.
10. Adjust monthly advance payments: Increase your monthly payments or build a small reserve in a savings account to avoid unexpected large bills.

You are not helpless against the price increases. With the tips mentioned alone, an average of 465 € per year per apartment can be saved. Act now, because your consumption this winter will determine the amount of your additional payment in 2027/2028.

Further Information:

• The full interview with energy economist Malte Küper is available on the Finanzus podcast.
• A detailed guide on checking your utility bill is available in the newsletter.