Benjamin Cowen|05. Juni
Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers
Current Market Situation and Cycle Analysis
- Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $60,000 and has just swept the February low.
- The analyst expects the cyclic bottom in Q4 (October) based on the 4-year cycle, which has reliably marked lows in midterm years (e.g., 2014, 2018, 2022).
- A counter-trend rally in July/August is possible, followed by a final drop in Q4.
- Bitcoin's current year-to-date ROI is exactly at the average of previous midterm years – it only feels different because the top was apathetic rather than euphoric.
- RSI: Considered unreliable for pinpointing exact bottoms. An oversold RSI can persist for a long time before a genuine trend reversal.
- 200-day moving average (200-DMA): Rejection at this level preceded the June low. A potential counter-rally could face resistance at the 200-DMA again (currently ~$78,000 but declining).
- Realized Price: Bitcoin tends to fall below the realized price later in the bear market (e.g., June 2022, November 2018, October 2014). This would signal an accumulation zone.
- A true recovery requires a stock market correction that prompts the Fed to ease monetary policy. A Goldilocks scenario would be a 10–20% drop in the S&P 500 (not 30–40%), leading to rate cuts.
- The stock market is currently experiencing a shallow June correction, likely temporary. A deeper correction in late Q3 / early Q4 is expected and could coincide with the BTC bottom.
- ISM (Purchasing Managers' Index) and M2 money supply are not reliable predictors for Bitcoin. The 4-year cycle is not a “narrative” but a data-driven pattern (lows roughly every 4 years).
- Altcoins (e.g., Ethereum, Cardano, Avalanche) are currently suffering more severe losses than Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance only appears stagnant because stablecoin dominance is rising.
- Most altcoins are considered poor long-term investments; many exist only to enrich founders. Advice: Only buy altcoins whose BTC pair is rising and whose protocol is actually profitable.
- A summer counter-rally could be triggered by positive news (e.g., “Clarity Act”), but it's just short-term noise.
- Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) for Bitcoin should begin after the June low in the second half of the year. Timing the exact bottom is impossible.
- In bear markets, both bulls and bears are humbled: Bulls see months of uptrends wiped out in weeks. Buying at the top and selling at the bottom are classic mistakes.
- Flexibility is key: If Bitcoin experiences a massive capitulation (e.g., to $40,000), one must quickly pivot and not rigidly stick to the Q4 low thesis.
- June lows in the past: June 18, 2022, and June 24, 2018. The next Fed meeting and Bank of Japan meeting coincide on June 17 – a BoJ rate hike could trigger a bottom.
- 2018: After the June low, a counter-rally in July, consolidation in August, and a final sell-off in October.
- 2022: Bitcoin experienced a capitulation to a new low. The correlation with stocks persists in midterm years (BTC bleeds versus stocks).
