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Latest Analyses(7)

Bitcoin: An Unfortunate Pattern [Update]
Benjamin Cowen|20. Mai

Bitcoin: An Unfortunate Pattern [Update]

📉 Bitcoin: An Unfortunate Pattern – Analysis Update

This video analyzes a recurring pattern in the Bitcoin market, suggesting an ongoing bear market scenario.

🔍 Key Insights:

  • Stablecoin Dominance (USDT + USDC) formed a massive base over two years. After a breakout from this base, the typical pattern is:

    1. A sweep to new highs
    2. A backtest of the breakout level
    3. A subsequent move higher

  • Comparison to Bitcoin Dominance: A similar pattern (A → B → C → D) occurred with Bitcoin dominance in the past. After an initial breakout, a backtest followed, leading to a prolonged upward trend.

  • Current Situation: Bitcoin was rejected at its 200-day moving average – a classic bear market signal also seen in 2018 and 2022.

  • Historical Parallels: In the last two cycles, Bitcoin bottomed in June (2018 and 2022). The current pattern with a low in February, a higher low in April, and a high in May at the 200-day moving average closely resembles 2018.

  • Outlook: The bear market is likely not over. A further decline may occur, potentially breaking below the February low.

🎯 Core Message:

The pattern suggests stablecoin dominance is structurally bullish, and Bitcoin is still in a bear market rally – similar to previous cycles. Investors should remain cautious.

SOURCE