Bankless|22. Juni
Arthur Hayes: The AI Crash That Could Send Bitcoin to $1M
Arthur Hayes on the Impending AI Crash and Bitcoin's Rise to $1M
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, discusses his thesis that the AI bubble will burst, triggering massive money printing that will drive Bitcoin to $1 million. He explains why he sold his AI token positions and why he remains bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum for the long term.
Hayes‘ Current Market Outlook and Positioning
- Sold AI Tokens: Hayes sold his positions in Hype, Near, and Zcash due to high risks and took profits. He sees asymmetric opportunities more in Bitcoin and other established cryptocurrencies.
- Capital Preservation over Returns: He prioritizes capital preservation, holding most of his wealth in Bitcoin and T-Bills to maintain mental sanity during volatile markets.
- Opportunity in Ethereum: Hayes considers Ethereum an attractive "mega-cap" coin, trading well below its all-time high of $5,000. He sees a lower risk of total loss compared to newer projects.
The AI Bubble and Its Consequences
- Reasons for the Bubble: Hayes compares the current AI investment wave to the 19th-century railroad boom. He criticizes GPU depreciation schedules (5-6 years) as unrealistic since chips improve every two years. He also highlights circular revenue deals and overvaluation driven by the "USA" brand.
- Chinese Competition: Cheaper Chinese AI models (e.g., DeepSeek) could commoditize US models, destroying investor return expectations.
- Political Risks: Hayes anticipates a political backlash against AI, as the general public doesn't benefit from gains but suffers from rising energy costs and environmental pollution.
The AI Crash as a Catalyst for Bitcoin
- Mechanism: When the AI bubble bursts, banks and central banks will print massive amounts of money. Investors, however, will avoid putting new capital into AI due to poor returns. Instead, printed money will flow into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
- Comparison to Subprime: Hayes calls this potential crash "bigger than subprime" and sees Bitcoin as the ultimate beneficiary.
- Timing: He expects first signs in 2027/2028, when flawed GPU depreciation models become apparent. The political turning point could be the 2028 US presidential election.
Perspectives for Cryptocurrencies
- Current Underperformance: Cryptocurrencies suffer from AI’s dominance as an asset class, absorbing all capital. Bitcoin and Ethereum are therefore undervalued.
- Recommendation: Hayes advises selling AI stocks before the crash, waiting for the subsequent market drop, and then investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum – before the money printing waves begin.
Additional Topics
- Perpetual Swaps: Hayes explains the advantages of perpetual swaps over traditional futures: 24/7 trading, high leverage, and socialized loss mechanisms. He sees Hyperliquid as a potential winner over Binance due to a superior product.
- Energy Market: Hayes expects rising oil prices due to replenishment of strategic reserves, which could further fuel inflation. However, this is irrelevant to AI investors as long as return expectations remain high.
