Welcome to Nofinity

• Alibaba: Once highly favored, now down over 40%, but potentially the best AI stock to buy. Michael Burry is also investing in Chinese e-commerce.
• Strategic Focus: The chairman emphasizes a critical inflection point in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), AI agents, infrastructure, and T-Head AI chips. Heavy investments are being made in cloud services and AI integration.
• Growth Comparison: Alibaba's AI and cloud business grows at 40%—far outpacing SpaceX's 15%. While Alibaba's cloud holds only 4% of the global market, it dominates 40% of China's market.
• Value Potential: Even without AI growth, Alibaba offers solid value. E-commerce generates $40 billion in EBITDA. Short-term pressure from China's e-commerce wars exists, but long-term earnings of $9–12 per share by 2029 are projected.
• Valuation Scenarios:
  • Best case (15% AI growth): 5–6x return in 10 years including dividends.
  • Base case (10% growth): 10–11% annual return, fair value at $120.
  • Worst case: Stock drops to ~$66 (margin of safety).
• Risks: Political uncertainty (Pentagon military list), intense competition in China, high capex impacting short-term profits.
• Author's View: Alibaba is akin to Amazon or Mercado Libre in China–cheaply valued with AI upside. Currently no position, but considering re-entry if a margin of safety emerges.

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In this episode, David talks with Eric Connor and Andy 8052 about the current memecoin wave, its evolution, and new use cases. They discuss why memecoins remain a permanent part of crypto despite their short-lived nature, and how tools like FOMO and AI-driven analytics make the space safer and more accessible.

• Memecoins are durable as a meta, but most individual coins go to zero – they thrive on attention and speculation.
• Progress through social apps: FOMO provides transparency into wallets and trading behavior, fostering social accountability and making scams harder.
• AI as a shield: New models like Jev can help detect bundling, scams, and concentrated ownership.
• Stock-paired memecoins (e.g., AI, paired with Nvidia) are a new trend: they create liquidity, can influence stock prices, and enable unconventional market structures.

• Discovery: Many use FOMO, Telegram groups, and bots – but timing is crucial. Buying after large follower purchases often means buying late.
• Important checks: Holder distribution, launchpad quality, serial launchers, and bundle suspicion.
• Sell discipline: Don't sell too early (FOMO rewards, creator tips), but also cut losses. Clear rules help: "Would I buy this coin now?"

Memecoins remain highly risky, but the infrastructure is maturing. New platforms and AI tools could make the space safer and more sustainable in the long run – although scams will never fully disappear.

In this video, the creator reflects on his misjudgment regarding Bitcoin and analyzes why his previous thesis failed. He emphasizes being open to other opinions and announces new speakers for his conference, including Michael Saylor and Grant Cardone.

• Starting point: He expected rising energy prices → higher yields → Fed rate hikes → stronger dollar → falling Bitcoin.
• What actually happened: Energy and yields rose, the Fed hiked rates, the dollar strengthened – but Bitcoin also rose instead of falling, contradicting his expectation.
• Divergence: Previously, a stronger dollar correlated with Bitcoin declines, but this time Bitcoin moved up, printing a higher high, indicating a shift in market structure.

• Reviewing past rate-hike cycles: In December 2015 and March 2022, Bitcoin either rose or the bottom was already in after the first hike. An immediate drop is not historically supported.
• September hikes (2018, 2022): Bitcoin did not drop right after the announcement; sometimes it rallied. In 2026, Bitcoin also responded positively.
• Statistical analysis: Bitcoin tends to perform better than expected after rate hikes. A decline might only occur one to two months later, not immediately.

• Chart analysis: Bitcoin formed its usual February low (midterm year) and summer low, as in previous cycles. The current 50% rally from the summer low is unusually strong.
• Golden Cross: The golden cross hinted at a continuation. Combined with the rate hike, it created a "perfect storm" for the breakout.
• Comparison with metals: Silver made a higher high without breaking its prior low – similar to what Bitcoin might do in case of a correction.

• Admitting the error: He acknowledges that his assumption of an immediate Bitcoin drop after a rate hike was not data-driven.
• Short term: He advises deferring to those who correctly predicted this breakout. If Bitcoin weakens in Q4, a higher low should not be ruled out.
• Long term: Historically, final weakness in midterm years often occurs after elections. A macro higher low could therefore form after November.
• DCA strategy: He bought below 0.3 risk in 2026 but only held for five days; he recommends staying consistent.

The creator sees the burden of proof now on the bears: Bulls have established a higher high. He will remain more flexible and less deterministic. He also promotes his ITC conference on November 21 in Miami with prominent speakers like Michael Saylor and Grant Cardone.