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Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) released a new letter with six new purchases. The analyst examines each position, evaluating opportunities and risks.

• Ackman targets cheap growth stocks with low P/E ratios and high growth – better than the S&P 500.
• However, he has underperformed the market since 2012 (S&P 500: ~15% p.a., Ackman: low double digits).
• High fees (1.5% management + 16% performance) cause a persistent discount to NAV.

• Brookfield: Risky growth chase. Earnings grow via leverage, not real cash flows – similar to private equity. Vulnerable to shocks.
• Microsoft: AI bet. 70% of growth comes from two customers (circular financing). If AI growth slows, 60–70% downside is possible.
• Amazon: More reasonable valuation. AWS grows strongly, conservative intrinsic value near current price. But the analyst prefers waiting for a better entry (e.g., $90 years ago).
• Howard Hughes: Insurance vehicle for AI investments. Deemed too risky (Buffett avoids big insurance deals now).
• Restaurant Brands: Relies on buybacks and multiple expansion (P/E from 20 to 30). Relatively cheap, but not absolute value.
• Meta: Cheapest hyperscaler. At conservative assumptions (8% growth, P/E 20) already fairly valued. Ackman expects 20% growth – then a potential doubling, but risky.
• Visa: Solid business, P/E 30. Fair value at 10% growth, extra returns if faster. Good margin of safety.
• Intercontinental Exchange, Alcon: Steady growers, not analyzed in depth.

Ackman is doubling down on AI bets and cyclical growth stocks. His holdings are relatively cheap vs. the market, but not absolute value. The analyst sees risks from shocks (recession, AI bubble). Investors should consider the high fees and avoid blindly following.

This video presents a refined brewing method for the Moka pot (stovetop espresso maker), based on modern coffee science and the physics of the device. It aims to improve the traditional technique without losing its essence. Key points:

• Water temperature: Start with room temperature water (exception: stainless steel Moka → ca. 50 °C). This prolongs extraction and gently releases volatile aromas at 50‑60 °C.
• Grind size: Use a medium‑coarse to coarse grind (similar to a coarse V60). Finer grinds create too much pressure and push temperatures above 110 °C – harming flavor.
• Dosage & ratio: Fill the basket level (not heaped). Water in the base just below the valve. A ratio of about 1:5 (water:coffee) in the base yields roughly 1:3 in the cup.
• Aeropress filter: A paper filter on top of the coffee bed produces clearer coffee and removes sediment.
• Active flow control: Once coffee emerges, briefly lift the pot from the heat or lower the heat to slow flow to about 1 gram per second. This keeps temperature lower and extraction even.
• Avoid the Stromboli effect: Stop brewing before heavy sputtering (air bubbles in the riser tube). The final sputtering often adds bitterness and leathery notes – better to discard it.
• Adjust aftertaste: If the Moka tastes too sour or intense, dilute with hot water. This reduces perceived acidity and unfolds aromas.

Conclusion: The classic Moka pot can produce exceptional coffee if you actively control temperature, start with cool water, and avoid over‑fine grinding. This technique requires attention but rewards you with a much better cup – even with light roasts.

Summary follows...

The video by The Coin Bureau explains the profound shift in the crypto industry: from speculative ICOs to protocols that generate actual revenue. The focus is on the question that now defines every token: What does this protocol actually do, and who pays for it?

The ICO Era: Stories over Substance

• 2017: A whitepaper, a logo, and a Telegram group were enough to raise millions – without a product or testnet.
• ICOs raised over $20 billion, but four out of five projects turned out to be scams or failed.
• Regulatory wave: The SEC declared DAO tokens as securities, China banned ICOs, and Telegram had to return funds.

DeFi Summer 2020: Activity Yes, But No Value Creation

• Liquidity Mining: Protocols like Compound lured users with freshly minted tokens (e.g., COMP) – essentially “renting” users.
• SushiSwap pulled over $1 billion from Uniswap by offering incentives.
• Core problem: Even the top protocols (Uniswap, Aave, Compound) didn’t pass fees to token holders – only governance rights, no revenue share.

The 2022 Collapse: Returns Without a Source

• Terra/LUNA offered 20% yields on UST – the peg collapsed, wiping out billions.
• Celsius froze withdrawals, FTX collapsed – in all cases, there was no real revenue source.
• Lesson: The question “Where does the yield come from?” became central.

Today: Protocols with Real Business Models

• Stablecoins: Tether (net profit $1.5B in Q2 2024) and Circle ($668M) invest in US treasuries and keep the interest – an extremely profitable model.
• Tokenization of RWAs: BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and Ondo list tokenized stocks and ETFs – bringing traditional financial products onto the blockchain.
• Hyperliquid as a pioneer: This perp DEX generated $429M in revenue (Jan–Sep) through fees, with up to 99% going to an Assistance Fund that buys and burns HYPE tokens. Additionally, 90% of USDC reserve yields feed buybacks.
• Fee Switches: Uniswap, Aave, Jupiter, and Sky introduce fee mechanisms that pass revenue to token holders – a paradigm shift.

Conclusion: The Best Product Wins

• Institutional investors now understand dashboards with fees, reserves, and buyback programs – this aligns with traditional finance logic (revenue, reserves, capital returns).
• Competition: In 2017, the best marketing won; in 2021, the most generous token emissions; today, the best product with real revenue wins.
• Question to viewers: Is revenue the only criterion? Or do story-driven projects still have a chance?

This video analyzes how much of a $1,000,000 portfolio should be invested in bonds or cash. The focus is on the current market situation, risks, and the strategy of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

1. Cash Holdings: The Berkshire Hathaway Example

• Berkshire's Strategy: Berkshire currently holds $360 billion in cash (about 35% of assets). This occurred mainly when yields on 3-month Treasury bills rose to over 5%.
• Market Timing: Buffett sold Apple shares to secure the safer, risk-free income of 5%. This is considered market timing, but with the nuance of risk minimization ("Risk first, then return").

2. The Current Yield Environment (U.S. Treasuries)

• High Yields: The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes is around 5.2% – a multi-decade high (last seen in 2006). 20 to 30-year bonds offer 5.5% to 5.6%.
• Safe Yield vs. Equity Risk:
  • Investing $1,000,000 in 10-year Treasuries yields $52,000 per year (nominally safe).
  • If reinvested, this results in $1,600,000 in 10 years (at 5% yield).
  • In contrast: The S&P 500 lost up to 50% between 2000 and 2009 ("10 years minus 50%").

3. The Inflation Counter-Argument

• Real Return: High inflation (approx. 28% purchasing power loss of the USD since 2022) has eroded the nominal returns of bonds. Inflation-adjusted real returns were often zero.
• Future Outlook: Due to high U.S. government debt and rising interest payments, higher inflation is expected. Bonds therefore offer more of a nominal protection than a real increase in value.

4. Maturities, Risk, and Return Opportunities

• Short-term (3 months): Low risk, high liquidity. Must be reinvested after 3 months. This is Berkshire's preferred method.
• Long-term (10-40 years): Higher risk, but chance of capital gains:
  • If interest rates fall, the prices of long-term bonds rise (e.g., +30% plus yield during rate cuts).
  • If interest rates rise, prices fall (e.g., -50% in ETF losses since 2020). Predicting interest rate movements is considered extremely difficult.

5. High-Yield Bonds (Junk Bonds)

• Yield: Currently around 8%.
• Risk: These are junk bonds. Howard Marks estimates that 4% of issuers default annually. The spread to the 10-year Treasury (5.2%) is relatively small at 2.8%. During crises (like 2009), 50% price crashes can occur.
• Conclusion: The presenter rejects junk bonds in his own portfolio, as the risk erodes the return too much.

6. Strategic Allocation: Market Timing vs. Value Investing

• Not Pure Timing: The approach is to be an absolute return investor. One seeks investments with 8-10% returns and a high margin of safety ("Buffett and Munger target"). If not found, one stays in bonds.
• Presenter's Personal Recommendation:
  • Not a Cash Fan: He is 95% invested in stocks (value stocks). He believes he can always find an equity return of 10% or more.
  • For Other Investors:
    • Value Experts: 80-100% in stocks.
    • Less Certain Investors: 50% in bonds (short to long term). This provides peace of mind and allows for reallocation when stock prices fall.
    • 60/40 Portfolio: The classic allocation (60% stocks, 40% bonds), which has performed poorly recently, could perform very well again over the next 10-15 years.

7. Conclusion and Call to Action

• The Core Question: What is more important to you: safety, liquidity, and peace of mind, or the higher return potential of stocks?
• Decision Basis: If you can no longer assess the intrinsic value of your stocks (e.g., due to the AI hype), bonds are a sensible alternative.
• Call to Action: Write in the comments how this strategy fits your personal situation.

According to JP Morgan, oil flows from crisis regions have already recovered to 98% of pre-war levels. The oil crisis might resolve faster than expected – the oil price is at risk of falling.

• 10-year US yields at levels not seen since 2002 (above 5.2%).
• Bears warn: High yields + rising credit spreads = risk for financial markets and weak links (France, Italy).
• US consumer confidence at its lowest since 2014, but spending remains solid.
• Market breadth is shrinking – many stocks below their 200-day moving average.

• US inflation data better than expected (PCE at 3.4%, Core at 3.0%).
• Rate hike probability for October now only 21.6% (FedWatch).
• AI boom continues: Trump pledges no regulation, OpenAI and Google report strong numbers.
• Seasonality favors rising markets (October–December historically strong).
• Labor market cools (29K jobs vs. 90K expected) – Goldilocks scenario.

• Oil price: Shorts on Treasuries are extreme – potential short squeeze could boost stocks.
• AI investments need only 60% of existing order backlog to achieve 15% returns.
• Rates may already be too high – data centers boom, private construction collapses.
• Billman's thesis: Higher rates fuel inflation (vicious cycle via AI investments).
• S&P 500 valuations are normal (+10% vs. +16% during Dotcom bubble).

• Bought: Credo Technology (AI infrastructure) and Burlington Stores.
• Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List: includes Microsoft, Amazon, UnitedHealth, Vertex, Delta, Applied Materials.
• Bitcoin: Volatility decreased – bear market seems over.
• Defense stocks: Russia increases military budget by 27% – potential opportunity.
• Risk: Companies with high variable debt (financials, consumer cyclical, industrials).

• The unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 4.1% (rounded) to 4.2% – in absolute terms from 4.14% to 4.18%. Not yet a clear trend.
• Layoffs actually fell; the higher unemployment rate is partly due to a rising participation rate, as more people are looking for work.
• By age group: 16–19 year olds rose from 12.1% to 14.5%; 20–24 year olds recently stood at 8%; 25–54 year olds were broadly unchanged. Younger job seekers are having a harder time.
• Job growth is modest: the three-month average is around 152,000, and prior figures were revised lower. There is little cushion against further weakness.

• Despite weak payroll data, long-end yields (10/20/30-year) rose – unusual. The driver appears to be inflation concerns, including a hot Tokyo CPI print.
• Credit spreads (including high yield) have widened. Historically, that has often preceded equity drawdowns – but so far the S&P 500 has been supported by the “Magnificent 7.”
• The equal-weight S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are already correcting, while the major indexes remain near highs.

• Quit rates are a cyclical indicator: they tend to fall in recessions because workers are less willing to leave their jobs.
• Many leading indicators only trigger after falling asset prices and often identify recessions in hindsight.
• A key topic may be a resumption of quantitative tightening (QT) if inflation persists – with implications for crypto and risk assets. So far, there has been no sustained rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins.
• Key message: Markets ignore macro factors until they become the only thing that matters. The upcoming inflation report in a few weeks is therefore crucial.
• Recommendation: Have an investment strategy and do not overreact to short-term macro noise.