InvestAnswers|30. Mai
$2T Flywheel, Stacking Strategy 🚀 Avoid the IPO Trap!🚨 are ALTS Dead? 💀
In this Saturday Q&A session, the speaker answers community questions, focusing on IPOs, especially the upcoming SpaceX IPO, and optimal capital allocation.
💰 SpaceX IPO – The Deep Dive- Market Opportunities: SpaceX has enormous potential. Recent contracts include Anthropic ($15B/year), the US military (Space Data Network: $2.3B; Golden Dome: ~$4.2B), and lunar missions ($1.7B).
- Competition: Blue Origin has suffered major setbacks (launch pad explosion, 12-24 month delay). Without viable competition, SpaceX is currently the only serious provider for space transport, securing a strong market position.
- Valuation: A $2 trillion valuation is considered realistic based on expected revenue growth and margins. The speaker sees a long-term potential of 3-8 trillion.
- Strategy: A typical post-IPO dip is expected (80% of IPOs fall). The speaker recommends layering in: buy a small position first, then add on dips. Focus on where the puck is going, not current valuations.
- Capital Plan: The speaker has little cash himself and is trying to raise some. He will transparently share his allocation.
- Opportunities: Tesla is seen as part of an integrated Elon Musk empire (SpaceX, Starlink, xAI, etc.). The combined value of all Musk companies attracts massive passive capital flows (8% of all passive flows go to Tesla and SpaceX).
- Psychology: The speaker highlights the 'Pain of Waiting.' Buying now (e.g., at $436) risks missing later entries. The cost of waiting is weighed against potential returns.
- Scenarios: At $400 (moderate dip), 300 shares cost $120K. At $350 (deeper dip), it's $105K. A dip to $300 is deemed extremely unlikely (1-2%). He advises layering in.
- Tesla vs. SpaceX: Tesla is considered undervalued compared to SpaceX.
- Cardano (ADA) & XRP: Are labeled losers. Their market cap per transaction is ridiculously high. The speaker advises to sell immediately and rotate into winners.
- Chainlink (LINK): Seen as the only altcoin among those mentioned with potential (Pyth and LINK are the only oracle providers). If holding, one should rotate ADA and XRP into LINK.
- Strategy: Follow winners (e.g., Solana) and avoid outdated technology.
- Positive: Impressive wafer-scale technology, 20x oversubscribed. Could be NVIDIA alternative for inference workloads.
- Negative & Risk: Classic 'hype IPO' pattern; stock already down 40%. Fundamentals are expensive (103x sales). Not profitable, high costs, complex manufacturing. The speaker advises against being 'exit liquidity' and to wait for the post-IPO dip.
- Top 5 X Accounts: Morgan Housel (behavioral finance), Liz Ann Sonders (macro), Brian Feroldi (beginner finance), 10K Driver (portfolio construction), Andrew Lochner (practical finance).
- Pair Trading (PTOS) for Germany: Use Zetra-listed ETPs like
3TSE(3x Long Tesla) andTS3S(3x Short Tesla). Warning: Daily reset products; do not hold for more than 5-10 days. - Donation: The community donated to 'Heavencat Wait' animal shelter in Southern Nevada.
Conclusion: Focus on long-term wealth preservation ('Future Proof Your Bags') by investing in leading tech companies (SpaceX, Tesla) and avoiding losses from old cryptos or hype IPOs.
