Coin Bureau|20. Mai
Why Bitcoin Keeps FAILING at $80k
📉 Bitcoin's Correction and Institutional Outflows
- On Monday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $648 million in outflows, the largest single-day since January.
- Michael Saylor's Strategy bought 24,869 BTC (~$2B), while the Clarity Act advanced in the Senate.
- Bitcoin dropped from $82,200 (May 10) to $76,740 (May 19), now below the 200-day moving average.
- ETF outflows total over $1.5B since May 7, led by BlackRock's IBIT ($448M in one day).
- Order flow shows aggressive selling: Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) swung from +$16.9M to -$126.2M.
- Options market 25-delta put skew rose to 14.4%, indicating increased hedging demand.
- 200-day MA: $81,267 (resistance) – a daily close above turns bullish.
- Support: $76,000 (currently tested). A close below opens the path to $74,000–$75,000 (Strategy's cost basis).
- Next zones: $72,000, $70,000, and $68,000 in the deepest scenario.
- Bullish invalidation: Close above $78,500 (false breakdown) or above $80K and $82K.
- Exchange reserves rose by 20,000 BTC; short-term holders realized losses.
- Long-term holders distributed profits, with daily realized profits peaking at 14,600 BTC on May 4.
- 30-year Treasury yield breached 5% – highest since 2007.
- Bitcoin's correlation with NASDAQ is above 0.7; gold hits record highs while Bitcoin falls.
- Watch ETF flows: 3-5 consecutive days of inflows >$100M signal institutional return.
- Focus on $75,500–$76,000 close: Holding weakens the correction narrative.
- 30-year yield: Stabilizing below 5% eases macro pressure; above 5.3% deepens pain.
- Spot CVD: When buyers lift offers, it's an early confirmation of a local bottom.
