Welcome to Nofinity

• Main thesis: For decades, the moka pot's function has been misunderstood. The key factor is not steam pressure, but the thermodynamic relationship between pressure and heat generation versus pressure relief.

• Role of headspace: The headspace in the lower chamber is the engine of extraction. Hot air expands and pushes water up before steam forms. This has been confirmed by studies (Navarini 2009).

• Size matters: Smaller pots (e.g., 1-cup) are more self-regulating and forgiving because water removal causes a larger relative pressure drop. Larger pots (6-cup and up) yield higher temperatures and pressures at the end of extraction.

• Water level: A lower water level (below the valve) reduces brew temperature and extraction temperature, potentially reducing bitterness. Adjusting water volume manipulates the balance between pressure relief and heat/pressure generation.

• Water temperature: Room temperature water leads to cooler extractions and prevents over-extraction at the end. Boiling water results in very high temperatures and potentially bitter coffee.

• Grind size and dose: Grind size determines resistance. Finer grinds increase pressure and temperature; coarser grinds decrease them. Too coarse can break the pressure seal. Always fill the basket to the top for a proper seal. Tamping is not recommended with fine grinds as it increases pressure.

• Aeropress filter: An Aeropress filter paper can clarify the cup and improve extraction efficiency without significantly affecting pressure.

• Practical application: For light roast coffee: coarse grind, lower water level (about 120 g in a 3-cup pot), room temperature water. This yields an extraction yield of about 19% and TDS around 6%.

• Conclusion: Understanding thermodynamics allows you to dial in any moka pot (regardless of size, material, or style) to your taste preferences.

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• Otis, Kone, and Schindler are defensive elevator stocks benefiting more from servicing than new installations.
• The market grows 2.9% annually and could double over the next decade.

• Stock down 40% from its peak 1.5 years ago.
• P/E ratio: 19, Dividend yield: 2.48%, Market cap: $28 billion.
• Business model: Servicing 2.5 million elevators and escalators is the core, providing stable cash flows.
• Challenges: High debt from spin-off, negative equity, and weak new equipment sales in China.
• Financial health: Adjusted free cash flow of $1.5 billion, share buybacks of $800 million.
• Valuation: Intrinsic value at $43 (assuming 6% dividend growth); current price is higher. A margin of safety appears only at $30–35 (50% drop).
• Shareholder yield: Total yield of ~5% (2.5% dividend + 3% buyback yield).

• Kone: Better stock performance, focus on dividends (no massive buybacks). Solid balance sheet (near-zero debt). Adjusted free cash flow close to $2 billion.
• Schindler: Swiss company with confirmed guidance. Valuation similar to Kone.
• Common trends: Digitalization, connectivity, and modernization reduce maintenance costs and boost efficiency.
• Competition: Otis is market leader, followed by Kone and Schindler (oligopoly).

• Strengths: Stable, predictable cash flows, oligopolistic structure, growth tailwinds from urbanization in Asia.
• Weaknesses: High valuations in current market, insufficient margin of safety for value investors.
• Recommendation: Monitor these stocks; if prices drop (e.g., Otis to $30–35), they become attractive entry points.
• For patient investors: These defensive stocks offer dividend growth – but only at the right price.

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