Mario Lochner|29. Aug.
We were wrong: THIS now opens every investor's eyes // BRIEFING
Introduction
Mario Lochner addresses a common misconception among investors: selling is the right strategy now. He presents seven key questions that reveal why the opposite might be true.
Weekly Recap: Winners & Losers- Winners: Nvidia (revenue +106%, guidance beats estimates), Salesforce (AI monetization), Allianz (new all-time high), Meta (settlement removes uncertainty), Crowdstrike & Okta (cybersecurity).
- Losers: Dick's Sporting Goods (weak outlook), Wendy's (no full takeover), Marvel (sold off despite solid results).
Bears warn of:
- Trade war with Canada, high US debt (>$40 trillion), rising interest rates (Kevin Wash), and overvaluation.
- Gold and Bitcoin purchases as a vote of no confidence in the dollar.
Bulls counter:
- Global economy growing stronger than expected (City Global Economic Surprise Index high).
- US economy robust (GDP Nowcast at 4.6%, heavy truck sales rising).
- Sentiment: bearish percentage >44% – historically a bullish signal.
Nvidia once again beat expectations and targets 70–100% revenue growth. The market massively underestimates AI chip demand. Historically, Nvidia has almost always beaten guidance – continuation is likely.
Seven Questions That Argue Against Selling- Valuation of Magnificent 7: Forward P/E below 25 – almost as low as during the COVID trough.
- PEG Ratio of S&P 500: Historically low (last seen in the 1980s).
- Global Earnings Revisions: Rising sharply, especially for 2026/27.
- AI as Real Value: Companies using AI show better margins than those that don't.
- Data Centers & Demand: Vacancy rate at 1%, demand booming.
- Positive Effects for Citizens: In Quincy (USA), poverty rate fell from 29.4% to 6.2% thanks to data centers; electricity tariffs are decreasing.
- Earnings vs. Prices: Unlike the dot-com bubble, earnings are outpacing prices – no overvaluation.
- Victoria's Secret as a second-order effect of weight-loss drugs (+300% in one year).
- Memory chips remain scarce and expensive – beneficiaries include Micron.
- Gold & Bitcoin remain interesting; copper and healthcare (longevity) are performing well.
- ETF tip: Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap (0.07% expense ratio, covers 98% of the market).
Mario advises not to sell blindly but to shift perspective. The AI revolution is just beginning, and fundamentals support further growth. However, he cautions to consider risks and avoid overconcentration.
