Welcome to Nofinity

• The biggest mistake: Not filing your tax return at all.
• Easy start: Even a nearly empty return (using only data from your wage tax certificate) often results in a refund, especially with salary changes or bonuses.
• Deadline: For employees without an obligation to file, you have 4 years to submit voluntarily.

• Commuter lump sum (from 2026): €0.38 per kilometer of the one-way distance. For 10 km and 220 workdays = €836 deductible.
• Public transport tickets: Actual costs (e.g., Deutschlandticket) can be deducted if cheaper than the commuter lump sum.
• Home office allowance: €6 per day, max. €1,260 per year. No receipts needed, just enter the number of days.

• Work equipment: Laptop, phone, software subscriptions (professional portion). Devices up to €952 gross can be fully deducted immediately; more expensive items (e.g., laptops) are depreciated.
• Flat-rate allowance: Without proof, €110 for equipment and 20% of phone/internet costs are often accepted.

• Craftsmen costs: 20% of labor costs are directly deducted from your tax. Max. €1,200 per year (equivalent to €6,000 invoice total).
• Household-related services: Cleaning lady, gardener, snow removal. 20% deduction, max. €4,000 per year.
• Check your utility bill! Deductible items are often hidden here (caretaker, stair cleaning, chimney sweep).

• Childcare costs: 80% deductible, max. €6,000 per year.
• Donations: To non-profit organizations, max. 20% of your income.

• Rule of thumb: Deductible amount x your personal marginal tax rate = tax savings.
• Example: Marginal tax rate 35%, Deutschlandticket €756 → savings of approx. €265.

• Elster: Free, but less user-friendly.
• Tax software: More intuitive, ranging from free to about €40.

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Summary follows...

• The speaker expects the Fed to hold rates steady tomorrow (July 29) and likely hike in September.
• Reason: The Fed typically follows the 2-year yield, which is already pricing in higher rates.

• If the Fed does not hike, bond vigilantes could push long-term yields higher (10-year toward 5%, 30-year above 5.2%).
• The 30-year yield has been testing the 5.1–5.2% level since 2023; a breakout would force the Fed's hand.
• Historical precedent: In midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022), the S&P 500 saw 10–20% corrections starting in August/September.

• Initial jobless claims hit a decades-low of 187,000, signaling a strong labor market.
• The unemployment rate is 4.2% and trending down since November 2025.
• Inflation risks remain: Energy prices (XLE) could rebound, pushing inflation higher despite recent drops.
• The short-term inflation decline (from 4.1% to 3.4%) looks positive, but energy and labor data suggest it may accelerate.

• A Fed hold without hikes could trigger a stock market correction (10–20%) in August/September, similar to prior midterm years.
• Bitcoin may bottom in Q4 2025, while altcoins continue to underperform.
• Flight to safety is evident: Mega-cap tech outperforms small caps; Bitcoin outperforms altcoins.

• Stablecoin dominance (excluding stablecoins) has doubled from 6% to over 13% since October 2025 – indicating risk aversion.
• Bitcoin dominance (ex-stables) is still rising, but altcoins suffer under restrictive monetary policy.

The Fed is likely to raise rates in September if long-term yields rise and the economy stays robust. Expect a market correction in late summer, followed by 2–3 rate hikes by year-end. Tight policy will favor safer assets and punish speculative ones.

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

Summary follows...