InvestAnswers|12. Juli
STOP Selling Your Winners! (Do THIS Instead)
Bitcoin Mining & Scarcity
- Bitcoin mining costs exceed price (1.2x ratio), miners struggle.
- No impact on scarcity: Difficulty adjustments and 21M cap remain fixed.
- Historical example: China mining ban 2021 caused 54% hash rate drop with zero effect.
- Miners pivot to AI due to electricity scarcity – new optionality.
- TAM (Total Addressable Market): Tesla $76 trillion, SpaceX $28.5 trillion. Biggest driver for Tesla: humanoid robots.
- Merger expected (2027/2028), ARB model values Tesla at $555 if merged today.
- Recommendation: Buy Tesla now (cheaper, strong tailwinds), but also hold some SpaceX (no competition).
- Problem: Partial sells (e.g., 50% at 2x) cap gains.
- Solution: Rotate into faster horses with leverage (e.g., sold Nvidia at $160, rotated to Tesla, then bought Nvidia back at $88).
- Set price targets: For 2030 e.g., Nvidia $800–$1,200, Marvel $550–$1,200.
- Don't overtrade: Wait for big opportunities (like Nvidia at $88).
- Tesla has best 10-year average CAGR (30.88%), but cyclical: 4 years quiet, then surge.
- When hope becomes toxic: If Cybercab fails to generate scaled software revenue by late 2027, or humanoid robots by late 2028 – exit.
- Confidence from SpaceX track record (Starship, Starlink).
- Max 15–20% in a single name (e.g., MicroStrategy).
- Wall Street expects triple to $275 in one year.
- Drawbacks: 0.75% fee, no Tesla, 35% in private companies without financials.
- Recommendation: Buy the “Apex Predator” Tesla directly – humanoid robots are scaling massively (factory size huge).
- Marvel is the faster horse: 6x potential by 2030 vs. Amazon (only 1.04x).
- But check taxes; rotating a year ago would have been better.
Conclusion: Let winners run but rotate strategically. Price targets and process are key. Not financial advice, just education.
