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Latest Analyses(7)

Stablecoin Dominance Signals More Pain for Crypto?
Coin Bureau Podcast|15. Mai

Stablecoin Dominance Signals More Pain for Crypto?

This analysis examines the dominance of stablecoins and the total crypto market (excluding stablecoins), suggesting that further downside may be ahead. The expert explains that the charts point to an ongoing bear market and that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall further in the coming months.

Key Indicator: Total ES.D (Excluding Stablecoins)
  • What is it? The dominance of the total crypto market, excluding all stablecoins. This chart shows where capital in the market is flowing.
  • Current Situation: After a drop from 90% to 86% dominance, the value recovered slightly but is now hitting a resistance zone.
  • Historical Comparison: In 2022, a similar pattern (TBO breakdowns, bullish divergences) led to further losses. The expert expects a repeat of this pattern.
The Counterpart: Stablecoin Dominance (USDT + USDC)
  • Rising Dominance is Bearish: When the dominance of stablecoins in the total market rises, it means investors are fleeing to safe havens and selling crypto assets.
  • Critical 13% Threshold: To see a good base for buying altcoins, the dominance would need to rise to 13% – a 30% increase from the current level. This level was reached in previous bear markets.
  • RSI Signal: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart shows a high probability for a further increase in stablecoin dominance, which would mean another sell-off in crypto.
Prices and Market Sentiment
  • Forecast: The expert expects Bitcoin (BTC) to bottom in October, following further losses in May and June.
  • Specific Bearish Price Targets:
    • $60,000 (a 26% drop)
    • $49,000 (a 39% drop)
    • $38,555 (a potential final target with a 52% drop)
  • Sentiment: The current euphoric and arrogant sentiment of the bulls is seen as a contra-indicator. The market is not yet clean.
Conclusion: Caution is Advised
  • The dominant charts (Total ES.D and Stablecoin Dominance) show clear signals for sustained weakness.
  • The pattern 'escalator up, elevator down' describes the current dynamics.
  • Next Key Level: A break below the lower cloud at 88.28% dominance in the Total ES.D chart would be a strong bearish signal.
  • The expert himself is taking short positions and advises caution instead of blindly betting on a recovery.
SOURCE