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• SpaceX surged about 50% after its IPO but gave back all gains within days – a common pattern.
• About 90% of IPOs eventually trade below their opening price.
• A comparison to Tesla's IPO (June 29, 2010) shows similar behavior: Tesla rose 60% post-IPO, then dropped 50% from its peak.

• Similarities:
  • Both companies are led by Elon Musk.
  • Both IPOs launched in June of a midterm election year (2010 for Tesla, 2026 for SpaceX).
• Differences:
  • SpaceX has a much higher market cap than Tesla at its IPO, requiring more capital to move the price.
  • The current macroeconomic environment (money supply, inflation) differs significantly.

• S&P 500 in 2010: A first correction of about 9% in February was followed by a deeper low in June/July – exactly where Tesla bottomed.
• Current Situation: The S&P 500 hit a low in March but has not yet formed a second, lower low. A second correction in the second half of the year is typical for midterm years (e.g., 2014, 2018, 2022).
• Forecast for SpaceX:
  • After retracing below the IPO price, another rally is likely.
  • A deeper pullback in late 2026 could align with an S&P correction, offering a long-term accumulation zone.
  • Over a 20-year horizon, SpaceX is expected to be highly disruptive, similar to Tesla.

• Avoid panic selling: The retracement is normal; a potential accumulation zone may form in H2 2026.
• Betting against Elon Musk is not recommended – the analyst plans to accumulate SpaceX in the second half of the year.
• Beware of FOMO: It may take 2.5 years or more for SpaceX to sustainably trade above its IPO high.

Conclusion: The pullback is typical and offers long-term entry points, but further volatility in H2 2026 is likely.

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

In this episode of the Bankless Weekly Rollup, David and Ryan discuss several key topics:

1. Stock Market Recovery: The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high after a V-shaped recovery, driven by the liquidation of a major fund (Ashen Brener) which removed forced selling pressure.

2. MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin: Michael Saylor sold 1,638 BTC ($105M) but Bitcoin barely reacted and even rose – a sign that Saylor is no longer the main marginal pricer of Bitcoin.

3. Ethereum Staking Yield Debate: A proposal from EF researchers (including Justin Drake) suggests burning staking rewards once 50% of ETH is staked, effectively driving yields to zero. Proponents argue Ethereum overpays for security and that unlimited staking harms ETH's monetary properties. Opponents (DeFi builders, Lido, Etherfi) warn it would crush solo stakers, scare institutions, and undermine credibility. The hosts believe the proposal is dead in the water ( <5% chance) given strong industry pushback.

4. Cold Card Exploit: A vulnerability in Coldcard's random number generator allowed hackers to brute-force seed phrases, draining over $130M in BTC from offline wallets. Victims did everything right but still lost funds – raising serious questions about self-custody in the age of AI-powered attacks.

5. Other News: Uniswap launches its own token launchpad (pools), the Clarity Act's chances drop to 15%, Cloudflare introduces wallets to protect content from AI bots, Near enables staking for AI inference, and Polymarket seeks a $20B+ valuation.

Overall Market Sentiment: The hosts feel crypto is in a waiting game – meme coins dominate, DeFi growth is slow, and fundamental progress (RWA tokenization, scaling) is incremental. Until the AI trade cools, crypto may remain in the background.

Summary follows...

This video discusses the massive opportunities and changes driven by AI, AGI, and chips. The speaker analyzes where the money is flowing in the age of AI and how to position oneself.

Computing Costs Skyrocket

• In 2025, a gigawatt of compute costs $50 billion, rising to $60 billion in 2026 and $73 billion in 2027.
• Growth rate of about 20–22% YoY.
• Bottlenecks include not just GPUs and servers, but also power supply, cooling, and maintenance.

GPU Rental Market Booms

• H100 GPUs are not obsolete; they are generating more revenue than ever.
• Prices for Blackwell clusters doubled from $2 to $4 per GPU hour in seven months.

SpaceX and Tesla's Terra Fab

• Elon Musk and Tesla plan the world's largest factory: 100 million sq ft (approx. 9.3 million m²) in Texas.
• Goal: Terawatt of compute, split into two product lines:
  • 25% for Tesla Optimus robots
  • 75% for Starship space missions
• Starting 2026, space-based data centers using Nvidia Vera Rubin chips are planned.

High Growth Rates at SpaceX

• SpaceX projects $100 billion in annual revenue by year-end.
• Three scenarios for monthly compute leasing revenue:
  • Conservative: $5.8–7.1 billion
  • Base: $7.5–9.2 billion
  • Optimistic: $10–11.7 billion
• CAGR of 170.4% to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2029.

Starlink and Telecom Market

• Starlink has over 12 million active subscribers and is growing rapidly.
• CEO Gwynne Shotwell targets $600 billion through partnerships with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile to eliminate "dead zones."

Company Valuations and Stock Trends

• Nvidia's P/E ratio is at its lowest (around 20), despite critics calling AI a "bubble."
• Tesla is seen as a "co-option on SpaceX" as the latter currently steals the spotlight.
• Google loses four top AI scientists but invests in companies like Anthropic and SpaceX.

AI Agents and Crypto

• AI agents increasingly use cryptocurrencies (e.g., Base from Coinbase) since banks are unsuitable.
• Base chain overtakes Solana and Polygon in cumulative transactions (over 150 million AI agent transactions).

Regulation and Risks

• The White House requires OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta to review AI models 30 days before release.
• 1,130 AI researchers call for slowing AI development due to loss of control.
• The speaker warns that slowing down could give China an advantage.

Outlook: End of Source Code?

• AI could soon convert legacy code (like COBOL or Pascal) directly into binaries, marking the end of traditional software development.

The chip and AI market offers enormous opportunities, but also risks from high costs, regulation, and geopolitical tensions. To position yourself, focus on Nvidia, SpaceX, and AI agent platforms.

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• Further details in the long video and test article.