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Latest Analyses(7)

NFA Live! Bitcoin, World Cup (Not Football Advice)
Benjamin Cowen|09. Juli

NFA Live! Bitcoin, World Cup (Not Football Advice)

📉 Bitcoin Market Outlook
  • Bitcoin is trading sideways around $60,000 – typical summer lull.
  • On-chain signals suggest a potential bottom:
    • Over 50% of Bitcoin supply is held at a loss.
    • Monthly RSI at its second-lowest level in 17 years.
    • Z-score (on-chain valuation) near 1.5 standard deviations.
  • Expected short-term range: $62,000 – $68,000, depending on macro developments.
  • Key indicators: recovery of 200-day SMA, sustained ETF inflows, and the Coinbase premium.
đŸ›ïž Macro & Monetary Policy
  • The Fed remains hawkish: about half of the governors vote for a rate hike by year-end.
  • Oil prices have dropped, but geopolitical tensions (Iran) could push them back up.
  • AI investments drive demand for electricity and chips, fueling demand-pull inflation.
  • The Fed is considering changes to the PCE measurement („trimmed PCE“), potentially shifting goalposts.
⚜ World Cup Discussion
  • Argentina (Ben’s team) won dramatically with 3 goals in 15 minutes – best game ever seen.
  • France considered strongest team (balanced attack and defense).
  • England still struggles with penalty shootouts (Harry Kane missed against France in 2022).
  • Controversy over red card for the USA: initially given, later overturned by FIFA president – criticized for lack of transparency and political influence.
📜 Regulation & Strategy
  • Clarity Act (crypto regulation): likely not passing this year, as a supermajority requires many Democrats – ethical concerns (Trump & family profited from crypto deals) block it.
  • MicroStrategy (Sailor): Selling Bitcoin (approx. 3,000 BTC) to repay debt and buy back shares. Optics are bad, as he previously preached „never sell“.
    • Selling pressure is known (up to $1.25 billion planned), but could weigh on the market.
    • Institutional investors may wait until the sale is completed.
  • Tom Lee keeps buying Bitcoin – his approach: buy in the bear market, profit long-term.
💡 Conclusion
  • Summer likely sideways with potential upside on positive macro signals.
  • World Cup provides distraction but also its own controversies.
  • Regulatory policy remains slow – wait and see if something changes after the election.
SOURCE