Benjamin Cowen|28. Mai
NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026
In this episode of NFA Live, Guy and Ben discuss the current 'boring' market conditions, analyze the reasons for the sideways movement, and offer strategic advice for investors preparing for the next cycle.
Why the Market is Boring Right Now- Phase of Maturity: Crypto is transitioning from a speculative fringe to established backend infrastructure. This is less exciting but necessary, leading to lower returns. ([00:05:00])
- Focus on Other Sectors: Investor attention has shifted to AI, the IPO wave (SpaceX, OpenAI), and commodities, which offer more current and dynamic narratives. ([00:04:00])
- Macroeconomic Factors: Rising energy prices and high inflation have taken rate cuts off the table, putting pressure on risk-on assets like crypto. ([00:30:00])
- Cyclical Market Experience (Ben): For the first six months of a midterm year, you should ignore crypto. It's only worth entering from July/August onwards, accepting that there may be further downsides (like FTX in 2022). ([00:15:00])
- Opportunity Cost (Ben & Guy): Instead of buying into a decline, shift capital into current bull markets (e.g., energy, S&P 500, bonds yielding ~4.5%) to later return to crypto with more capital. ([00:17:00])
- No Panic Selling: If you are already invested, do not sell on dips. The optimal time to sell was Q4 2025. ([00:27:00])
- Reaction: In a recession, crypto would initially suffer as it is the most liquid asset class. However, a recession could also trigger interest rate cuts, which would be positive for crypto. ([00:30:00])
- Leading Indicator: Since crypto reacts faster than stocks, the bottom may already be in before a recession is officially declared. ([00:31:00])
The market is listless, but this is part of the four-year cycle. Investors should use the first half of the year to take profits in other sectors. The ideal time to (re-)enter crypto is the second half of 2026, with news from Donald Trump serving as one of the most important market indicators.
