Benjamin Cowen|02. Juli
NFA Live! Bitcoin Hit a New Low
đ Bitcoin: New Low and the Question of the Bottom
- Low Point: Bitcoin recently tested the $57,000 range before bouncing back to around $61,500.
- Cycle Comparison: Ben Cowen compares 2026 to the 2018 bear market (shifted '10x' higher) and sees parallels:
- Lows in June/July 2018 (~$5,743) align with the $57,000 low in 2026.
- A summer rally is possible, but the 200-day moving average remains a key resistance.
- Outlook: A final cycle bottom is expected around September/October 2026, potentially triggered by a stock market correction.
- Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in the second half of the midterm year is recommended to get close to the bottom.
- Chinese Models: Open-source models (e.g., DeepSeek, GLM) are catching up, are cheaper, and can be run locally.
- Privacy: Alex Karp (Palantir) warns that large LLMs (OpenAI, Anthropic) could 'cache' and utilize corporate IP and sensitive data.
- Costs: The current subsidized token costs ('honeymoon phase') are expected to rise as investors demand returns.
- Recommendation: Private LLMs are recommended to protect your own data and control costs, although setup can be complex.
- US Dollar: Continues to strengthen â a headwind for Bitcoin over the next 3-4 months before the pressure eases in 2027.
- Japanese Yen: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised rates, which could lead to an unwind of the yen carry trade and a sell-off in risk assets.
- US Elections: The November midterms could cause increased volatility â Trump benefits from rising markets.
- Rob: Changed his mind on bear markets (they are less severe if you've taken profits) and on dogs (heroes). Insider tip: Guy might appear at the ITC conference in Miami (Polymarket bet).
- Ben: Expected energy (oil) to stay higher due to geopolitical tensions; Meme coins are more resilient than anticipated.
- Side Discussions: Debate on USA's red card in the World Cup, offside rules, and why Americans haven't fully embraced soccer yet.
Next Week: The show will be on Ben's channel, possibly without him. Save the Date: ITC Conference November 20-22, 2026 in Miami (investor-focused conference with a strong Bitcoin theme).
