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Latest Analyses(7)

NFA: Crypto’s Biggest Wallet Disaster Meets SpaceX Sell-Off
Coin Bureau Podcast|06. Aug.

NFA: Crypto’s Biggest Wallet Disaster Meets SpaceX Sell-Off

📉 SpaceX: Strong Earnings, Yet Stock Drops
  • SpaceX reported strong quarterly earnings beating expectations, but the stock fell due to high capex commitments for AI and post-IPO hype.
  • Benjamin compares this to other IPOs (Tesla, Apple): initial euphoria is followed by a digestion phase. He remains long-term bullish on SpaceX, especially for its space business.
  • The stock may stay weak short-term, but inflation protection and long-term prospects (monopoly in space) favor patience.
🤖 Hedge Fund Blow-Up: Situational Awareness Loses Billions
  • A young hedge fund manager named Leopold lost a fortune due to excessive leverage, despite being right on the AI trade.
  • Lesson: Being right ≠ making money – leverage and timing matter.
  • Benjamin sees not the end of his career: Many successful investors made spectacular mistakes early on. The failure could make him a better trader long-term.
  • Citadel bought up the positions – a classic "Revenge of the Boomers" (Ken Griffin).
🔥 Cold Card Exploit: The Biggest Blow to Self-Custody
  • Cold Card (Bitcoin hardware wallet) was compromised via a vulnerability in the random number generator – allegedly using AI. Over $100 million in Bitcoin lost.
  • Tragedy: Many users did everything right (offline wallet) yet lost everything. Trust in self-custody is severely damaged.
  • Benjamin: This is worse than October 10th (altcoin crash) because it undermines Bitcoin's core promise. Newcomers won't differentiate between Bitcoin and the wallet – the whole ecosystem looks unsafe.
  • Impact: Bitcoin stagnates around $60k while the S&P 500 hits new highs. Long-term holders may give up and switch to ETFs.
🏛️ Clarity Act & Politics
  • The regulatory clarity bill is stuck. Benjamin is indifferent: Since governments got involved, crypto has lost momentum. The "good old days" (2013, 2017) were before government interference.
  • He prefers to focus on cycles and charts rather than political developments.
⚽ Football (Soccer) & FIFA
  • Benjamin attended the Argentina vs. Egypt quarterfinal – stadium atmosphere was incredible.
  • Discussion about FIFA's commercialization plans (private investors, commercial breaks). European fans oppose this. Benjamin understands the greed but thinks it's wrong for the sport's integrity.
📊 Conclusion & Outlook
  • The Cold Card hack could be the catalyst for a capitulation in the bear market – similar to FTX in 2022 or the 2018 crash. A final drop at year-end is typical.
  • Newcomers are deterred by such events – the industry must find ways to restore security and trust.
The Most Obvious Crypto Trade Right Now (I'm betting big on it)
Miles Deutscher Finance|24. Aug.

The Most Obvious Crypto Trade Right Now (I'm betting big on it)

Market Sentiment & Altcoin Outlook
  • Sentiment echoes a new bull market with strong upward price action, especially for Bitcoin, which is approaching the $80,000 region.
  • The weekly trend reversal is confirmed as price has broken above the 200-day moving average.
  • Caution is advised, however, as price enters a resistance zone between $80,000 and $82,000. A retest of the $60,000 area is possible.
  • Analysts expect consolidation before a potential further move higher.
Specific Trade Ideas (Alpha)
  • Zcash (ZEC): Strong upward momentum; focus on breakouts after a sweep of a base/low. Potential price target: over $1,000.
  • Pump.fun: Waiting for consolidation to find a long entry.
  • ENA: Potential entry after a pullback into the $13-14 zone.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE): Waiting for a retest of the $70 level, then looking for a reclaim and continuation of the uptrend.
  • Memecoins (Robin Hood Ecosystem): The rotation is extremely fast. Currently, Cash Cat is the favorite, but the strategy is to buy dips after a breakout.
Risk Management & Strategy
  • Caution: A pure uptrend is not guaranteed. The trader employs a long-term strategy (accumulation) combined with short-term momentum trades.
  • Risk Management: Stop-loss is essential. Every trade is defined with a clear invalidation (e.g., a close below a previous low).
  • Focus: Currently focusing on a small basket of 5-6 assets to avoid information overload.
  • Portfolio Building: The best entries are during periods of calm and stability, not after a strong pump. Bitcoin is seen as a long-term asset (target: $500,000).
Macroeconomic Influences
  • Treasury Bond buybacks (Scott Bessant) are driving Bitcoin and Gold as non-yielding assets.
  • Equities (stocks) are correcting, however, due to higher interest rate expectations and valuation issues.
  • Bitcoin ETFs show strong inflows, supporting demand.
  • MicroStrategy did not buy this week, suggesting a natural upswing without artificial demand.
Conclusion & Actionable Advice
  • The market shows real strength, but entering a resistance zone requires discipline and stops.
  • Momentum trades (breakouts) and dips can be profitable.
  • Important: No blind buying at highs; wait for good entries with clear risk parameters.