Welcome to Nofinity

🇪🇺 Market & Sentiment:

• Topic of the Week: The AI rally has stumbled. Stocks like Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Broadcom (AVGO) have dropped sharply. Many stocks trade far above their 200-day moving average (e.g., Super Micro Computer +242%), indicating heightened risk.
• Winners & Losers: Marvell Technology (MRVL) surged +30% in a single day after a positive comment from Chensang (potential $1 trillion valuation). SAP and Palo Alto Networks are winners. Lululemon (LULU) (-41% YTD) and Strategy (MSTR) (first Bitcoin sale since 2022) are the big losers.
• Bears vs. Bulls: Bears warn of a bubble (comparing to Dotcom and the Shiller P/E). Bulls counter that earnings at large AI firms are real and exceptional (S&P 500 profit margins at record highs). Warren Buffett is buying into Alphabet via Berkshire Hathaway – a clear vote of confidence.
• Surprising Data:
  1. Trueflation is at 1.9% – inflation fears are exaggerated.
  2. The Economic Surprise Index is at a multi-year high – the US economy is performing better than expected.
  3. Financial conditions are as loose as before the Iran war – a key driver for the rally.

🚀 Highlight: SpaceX IPO

• Valuation: $1.8 trillion (not billions!). This IPO is historically massive (larger than all IPOs of the last decade).
• Subscription: Trade Republic and Revolut offer access.
• Risks: Maximum drawdown at comparable IPOs median 54%. Elon Musk has a 366-day lockup period (no sale in the first year).
• Idea: Free report on SpaceX & six stocks benefiting from the boom (link in description).

🔍 Summary & Strategy:

• AI Momentum: Not over yet. AI adoption (only 50% of US firms pay for models) and token spending (per LM Token Expenditure Index) are still rising.
• Strategy: Don't get greedy. Buy in tranches (e.g., Broadcom after the pullback). Keep a 15% cash position for potential summer storm pullbacks.
• Bitcoin: Analyst Marian Kopotsch is buying in tranches: 1st at $61k, 2nd at $55-60k, 3rd at $48-50k.
• Live Webinar: On June 9th with Dr. Gert Kommer (free).

The investor presents three newly purchased stocks and mentions his research platform with a 21-day money-back guarantee.

• Buys a holding company below its intrinsic value (sum-of-the-parts).
• Expects a return of 100% (from 10 to 20) through catalysts like liquidation or spin-offs.
• 40% of market cap in cash – the rest is practically free.

• 8% earnings growth over 10 years, P/E ratio of 10, dividend yield 6%.
• Potential total return of 14% per year.
• Likely takeover by private equity as an additional catalyst.

• Return on equity 20%, price-to-book ratio 1.2 – implies expected return in the high teens.
• Market cap below 2 billion, away from the AI hype.
• Focus on less noticed small caps.

• Risk minimization is the priority (Warren Buffett's rule: avoid losses).
• Model portfolio with 15% return per year over 8 years.
• New book coming in September; platform price will increase, current price stays.

Summary follows...

This video analyzes the current state of the S&P 500, which hit new all-time highs in August 2026. The speaker compares the situation to previous midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) and identifies patterns suggesting a possible correction in late summer or autumn.

🔍 Historical Comparisons

• 2014: Correction started on September 19 with a decline of about 10%.
• 2018: Correction started on September 21 with a decline of about 20%.
• 2022: Correction started as early as August 16 (bear market) with a decline of about 20%.
• Current (2026): The S&P 500 is at all-time highs – similar to 2014 and 2018 at this time.

⏳ Potential Timing of the Correction

• The next Fed meeting on September 16 could be a turning point.
• A rate hike or persistently high bond yields (10-year at 4.6%, 30-year already above October 2023 levels) could trigger a correction.
• The speaker expects the correction to begin in September, but it could extend into October or December.

💡 Impact on Bitcoin

• Historically, Bitcoin's cycle bottom often coincided with the second stock market correction in the second half of the year (e.g., 2014, 2018, 2022).
• If the S&P 500 drops to 6,000, Bitcoin could lose support at $60,000.

🛠️ Speaker's Strategy

• He regularly buys low-cost index funds and does not try to time the market.
• He views corrections as buying opportunities, not sell signals.
• He advises monitoring the bond market and the Dollar Index (DXY).

📅 Conclusion

• New all-time highs often lead to further highs before a correction occurs.
• The most likely period for a correction is September 2026, based on historical patterns.
• The speaker remains optimistic for long-term investors but warns of short-term risks.

• Oracle CDS hits higher levels than the Global Financial Crisis – a warning for credit markets.
• The US steps in to support the Japanese Yen, highlighting fiat fragility.
• Crypto Fear & Greed drops to 25 (extreme fear), Ethereum bleeds, Bitcoin holds $64K despite geopolitical tensions.

• Three on-chain indicators (Satoshi Meter, Porcopolis Power Law, Omega Score) align to signal a deep accumulation zone („killbox“).
• The historical correlation with ISM PMI remains intact: PMI has exploded, and Bitcoin should follow within 60 days – otherwise the correlation is dead.
• US GDP forecast for Q3 2026: +6.2% (Atlanta Fed), driven by AI.

• Tech stocks recover massively: Microsoft +26%, Amazon +19%, Palantir +30% (the $106 dip highlighted as an ideal entry).
• AI capex from hyperscalers exceeds $1 trillion, flowing into Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, etc.
• Tesla FSD: 70 million miles/day, life-saving; Optimus robot in development.
• SpaceX beats expectations (revenue +92%, profit), but „buy the rumor, sell the news“.

• Open-source models (DeepSeek V4) outperform closed source (Claude) with better quality at 98% lower cost.
• GPU costs continue to rise – demand is insatiable.

• Europe lags due to overregulation.
• AI could become an incorruptible source of truth, reshaping politics and society.
• Key takeaway: It's always darkest before the dawn – bullish on Bitcoin and AI.

Summary: Risk Researcher Warns: Why Shareholders Are Walking Blindly into Ruin + Germany's State Failure

In this interview, risk researcher Prof. Dr. Werner Gleisner analyzes the current risks for investors and companies. He warns of a dangerous risk blindness among many investors who focus only on cheap valuation metrics (like P/E ratio) without considering actual corporate risks. For Germany, he paints a bleak picture: competitiveness is declining, bureaucracy is paralyzing, and the state is failing to implement necessary reforms.

• The risk situation for German companies has worsened due to geopolitical power shifts and self-inflicted problems (e.g., low productivity, high energy costs).
• Germany is in a weak position because it has set wrong priorities for years (e.g., ESG goals over economic growth).
• The biggest crisis could be a chance for reforms, but political gridlock (firewalls, lack of majorities) prevents quick solutions.

• Many companies fail to meet legal requirements (StaRUG 2021): They must identify, quantify, and aggregate risks (Monte Carlo simulation).
• Without risk aggregation, companies miss combination effects – this is a ticking time bomb for bankruptcies.
• Auditors often do not check this; therefore, shareholders are blind to internal risks.

• Classic value investing (low P/E) is risk-blind: It confuses undervalued companies with high-risk cases.
• Modern strategy: first estimate the probability of bankruptcy (e.g., using equity ratio and return on total capital), then only select robust companies with a cheap valuation.
• Studies show: Profitability (high return on equity) is a stable success factor.

• AI can process huge amounts of data but is often used incorrectly for business questions (e.g., expected value vs. most likely value).
• Properly curated, AI helps with risk analysis and decision templates.
• Danger: AI amplifies human errors and does not replace decision-makers' responsibility.

• Within the next 10 years, 1–2 severe crises are likely (economic, financial, or geopolitical crisis).
• Investors should diversify globally, favor robust companies, and check for risk aggregation in annual reports.
• Germany needs three immediate measures: faster defense capability, restoration of competitiveness (reduce bureaucracy, foster innovation), and a comprehensive national risk analysis.

Original title: Risikoforscher warnt: Darum laufen Aktionäre blind ins Verderben + Deutschlands Staatsversagen

This video analyzes how the Bitcoin price rallied despite Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) pausing its purchases and even selling, disproving the thesis that Bitcoin depends on Michael Saylor.

The Turning Point: Strategy Stops Buying and Starts Selling

• On June 22, Michael Saylor made his last purchase of 520 Bitcoin. This was followed by a five-week pause – the longest since 2020.
• Just six days later, Bitcoin bottomed below $59,000.
• Strategy sold 3,588 coins straight into the low.
• The largest corporate buyer in the market walked away – and Bitcoin still recovered.

Why Saylor Changed Strategy

• On June 29, Strategy announced a new "Digital Credit Capital Framework," marking a complete reversal:
  • USD Reserve Policy: A minimum cash floor covering 12 months of interest and dividend payments.
  • Bitcoin Monetization Program: Authorization to sell coins worth up to $1.25 billion.
  • Share Buybacks: $2 billion authorized for buybacks of its own preferred and common stock.
  • Dividend Hike: Increased to 12% annually for the STRC preferred stock.
• CFO Andrew Kang stated: "Bitcoin is capital" – an asset to be deployed based on return.

The End of the Accumulation Flywheel

• Strategy raised over $1 billion through equity issuance in July but bought zero Bitcoin.
• Instead, the funds went to the credit reserve and share buybacks – the opposite of its previous strategy.
• Cash reserves hit an all-time high of $3.75 billion.

Bitcoin Rallied Anyway: Who Bought?

• Bitcoin ETFs: After $4.5 billion in outflows in June, inflows returned in July ($981 million over seven days).
• Other Companies: Japan's Metaplanet bought 2,823 Bitcoin in the same week Strategy was selling.
• Long-Term Holders: Shifted from distribution to net accumulation – smaller and mid-sized wallets absorbed the ETF redemptions.
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan: "Strategy's era as the dominant buyer is likely over. Institutions are filling the gap."

The Changed Risk Framework

• The sell program is capped at $1.25 billion (approx. 2.5% of holdings) – only 17% used so far.
• The liquidity reserve now covers 24–28 months of obligations (previously 10 months).
• The MNAV (Multiple Net Asset Value) briefly fell below 1 but recovered to 1.03 – the market is re-rating the strategy positively.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is No Longer a One-Man Bet

• The thesis that Bitcoin depends on Saylor has been disproven: Strategy paused and sold, yet Bitcoin rose – carried by ETFs and long-term holders.
• The risk of a forced Strategy sell-off is now quantifiable and limited.
• The marginal buyer has shifted from a single company to a decentralized group of institutions and retail investors.

Caution: Several smaller companies liquidated their Bitcoin holdings to service debt. Analysts warn of a potential retest of the mid-$50,000s if ETF demand fades.