Benjamin Cowen|08. Mai
Labor Market Holds Steady
🔍 Latest Labor Market Data & Market Outlook
📉 Labor Market: Weakness but No Recession- Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%.
- Initial jobless claims and layoffs remain low (under 300,000), suggesting the U.S. is not in a recession in a recession yet.
- However, claims typically rise during the summer months. This is a key factor to monitor.
- Job openings are declining, making it harder for the unemployed to find new positions quickly.
- A positive sign: Hires picked up slightly last month. It is uncertain if this is a new trend or a one-off.
- Conclusion: The labor market shows a mixed picture – strength in few layoffs, weakness in fewer openings. A broad recession is unlikely until asset prices (e.g., stocks) drop significantly.
- Stock markets have reached new all-time highs, which is typical for midterm election years (e.g., 2014, 2018).
- Two periods of weakness are expected: an early one (already passed) and a later one in Q3/Q4.
- Bitcoin has underperformed relative to stocks and has not reached new all-time highs. If stocks correct later this year, Bitcoin could fall and possibly make a lower low.
- The analyst remains cautious/bearish on Bitcoin, as these midterm rallies can be deceptive.
- Energy stocks (XLE) might perform well in the coming months, as they often shine late in economic cycles.
- The risk indicator remains very low (not above 0.16 since 2020).
- A real recession would likely require a broad rise in unemployment (like in 2001 or 2008) or a significant stock market crash.
- Interest rate risk could be an earlier warning signal.
- Seasonal patterns (summer/autumn weakness) should be respected.
- The S&P / M2 dynamic is being monitored as a potential guide for market moves.
Conclusion: The labor market is still holding up, but risks remain. Stock markets might correct later this year, which could also drag Bitcoin down. Caution is advised.
