Crypto Markets Explode!! Iran Deal, SpaceX IPO & Bitcoin Rally
After a tough week, markets are showing signs of recovery. Bitcoin is back above $66,000, and a potential Iran deal, along with the spectacular SpaceX IPO, is boosting sentiment. The key question is whether this uptrend can be sustained.
đ SpaceX: The Biggest IPO in HistorySpaceX's IPO on Friday was a monumental event. The stock was priced at $135 per share (valuing the company at approximately $1.75 to $1.78 trillion) and surged 19% on its first day to close at $160. In after-hours trading, it reached $166, pushing the market cap to $2.2 trillion. This is the largest IPO ever.
Bull Case:
- Strong Revenue Growth: Revenue increased 95-fold last year to $18.7 billion.
- Starlink: 39% operating margin, nearly 10,000 satellites in orbit â 15 times more than its nearest competitor.
- AI Division (xAI/Grok): $3.2 billion in revenue last year, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting a potential of $190 to $322 billion by 2030.
- Index Inclusion: SpaceX is expected to join the Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days, forcing passive funds to buy the stock.
Bear Case:
- Overvaluation: Morningstar sees fair value at $63 per share â 53% below the IPO price. The total addressable market (TAM) is estimated at $129 billion, not $1.6 trillion.
- Loss-Making: The company reported a loss of $4.9 billion in 2025.
- Lockup Expiry: In about 6 months, lockup periods for early investors (who have 50x to 100x gains) will end. A sale of just 10% of insider stock would flood the market with $175 billion in new supply.
- High Demand: The IPO was 3x oversubscribed. BlackRock alone placed a $5 billion order.
Monday:
- OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO.
- Bank of America advised taking profits â a warning many ignored.
Tuesday:
- Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,000, pressured by a drone strike on an Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz (asymmetric warfare: a $20,000 drone downing a $20 million helicopter).
- U.S. stocks lost $2 trillion in value.
Wednesday:
- Trump announced new strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
- Gold and silver fell to their lowest levels of 2026.
- U.S. CPI remained high â the highest since 2022.
Thursday:
- The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points (first major central bank to hike).
- Trump stated a deal with Iran was ânear.â
- U.S. stock markets recovered by $1.1 trillion.
Friday:
- SpaceX IPO (detailed above).
- Anthropic restricted access to its newest AI models (Fable and Mythos) to U.S. users after a jailbreak was discovered.
Weekend:
- First inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in three weeks ($85.9 million).
- Deal with Iran apparently finalized â signing expected Friday in Switzerland. Oil prices dropped.
Bitcoin (BTC):
- Broke above the key support at $63,913 ($64,000) on Sunday, a bullish signal.
- Target: testing the TBO Fast Line near $66,700.
- Warning: A drop back below $64,000 could trigger a crash to $49,000.
- Never trust a Sunday pump!
Ethereum (ETH):
- Also showed a bullish bounce, but Aaron expects it to fall back below support.
Total Market Cap (Total3, excluding BTC and ETH):
- Many altcoins (Hype, Bitcoin Cash, Zcash, Near, Aave) also rallied.
- Expect an initial rise to a market cap of $1.96 trillion, followed by another correction.
Stablecoin Dominance:
- An indicator of potential Bitcoin/Ethereum correction. A rise signals capital outflows from crypto.
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | BOJ (Bank of Japan) Rate Decision | 25 bps hike expected (90% probability). Key focus: guidance for future moves. |
| Wednesday | FOMC (Fed) Rate Decision | First meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Rates likely unchanged. Watch for changes in forward guidance (possible removal of âeasing biasâ). |
| Friday | âQuad Witchingâ | Simultaneous expiration of stock options, index options, stock futures, and index futures. This leads to elevated volatility and can amplify market moves. Also Juneteenth (U.S. holiday). |
An image of an NBA victory ceremony where a spectator is (unwittingly) compared to Ethereum. Hilarious and memorable.
đ ConclusionThe SpaceX IPO and progress towards an Iran deal are driving a positive market mood. However, the critical days ahead are Wednesday (Fed) and Friday (Quad Witching). Investors should closely watch the technical levels for Bitcoin ($64,000) and the rhetoric from central banks. SpaceX's rally may face headwinds from the upcoming wave of insider selling (lockup expiry).
