Bitcoin and the Spooky Market Situation at Halloween đ
The speaker analyzes a potential four-year cycle low for Bitcoin and highlights current, disturbing (âspookyâ) chart patterns.
- Current Status: Bitcoin is around 77,000â78,000 $ and has reached the bull market support band.
- Historical Parallels: False breakouts also occurred in 2015, 2019-2020, and 2022. These phases often ended with sharp declines (capitulation).
- Apathetic Top: The current breakout resembles 2019-2020 (an apathetic high), which is more prone to false signals than euphoric highs.
Macroeconomic and Cross-Market Signals đ
Several external factors point to further pullbacks:
- Interest Rate Hikes: A rate hike in September of a midterm election year historically led to lows about 40 days later â right in the current time window.
- Stock Markets: The NASDAQ has already fallen over 10%. The S&P 500, Gold, and the South Korean market show similar patterns (Q1 low, Summer low, Q4 low).
- IPOs: Liquidity is draining from Bitcoin ahead of the Anthropic IPO (mid-November), similar to the SpaceX IPO before.
Potential Lows and the âBalance Priceâ đ°
Technical analysis points to specific price targets:
- Realized Price: In every bear market, Bitcoin fell below this level. This could happen again.
- Balance Price: This lies around 38,000 $. All previous bear markets ended at this line.
- Bitcoin vs. Gold: The ratio could fall to 10. With gold at 3,800 $, this would mean a Bitcoin price of 40,000 $.
- Cycle Low: The speaker expects a Q4 low and advises respecting the market, not one's own wishes. A drop of 20% to the lower range ends is possible â meaning prices around 60,000 $.
Summary of the Spooky Scenarios đ»
- Call for Caution: The speaker warns against recklessness, even if the market shows short-term recoveries.
- Most Bullish Case: Bitcoin finds a higher low and starts a new rally.
- Most Bearish Case (Tail Risk): Bitcoin falls to the Balance Price (38,000â40,000 $) before the bear market ends.
- Actionable Advice: The market should be traded on its own terms. The burden of proof currently lies with the bulls.
The speaker reminds viewers of the upcoming ITC conference and asks for subscriptions and likes.