Bankless|01. Sept.
Kalshi’s Plan to Build the Largest Exchange on Earth
Introduction and Positioning
- John Wang of Kalshi clarifies: Kalshi is not purely an on-chain company but deeply embedded in crypto – holding 90% market share in crypto prediction markets and partnering with Coinbase, Robinhood Crypto, Phantom, etc.
- Kalshi chooses the regulated onshore approach in the US, with a long-term goal of going on-chain once regulations allow.
- Ryan and David draw a parallel to Circle vs. Tether: Kalshi as the compliant, regulated version, Polymarket as the offshore, unregulated one.
- Strength of onshore approach: Access to the mass market (99% TAM) via Facebook/Instagram ads, broker partnerships, and app store presence – key for onboarding the next wave of users.
- Kalshi operates the first regulated perpetual futures exchange in the US – CFTC-approved for Bitcoin and over a dozen other crypto assets.
- Competitive edge: Lower fees than Binance or Hyperliquid, leverage up to 6x (for crypto), higher leverage for less volatile assets (gold, silver planned).
- Future plans: Expansion to real-world assets (gold, silver), launch of Kalshi Pro (TradingView-like interface), combination of perps with prediction markets (e.g., displaying market expectations on charts).
- Kalshi draws a clear red line on insider trading – with surveillance, exclusion of politicians (e.g., Congress members), and market-level preventative measures.
- Philosophy: Only by preventing insider trading can liquid, scalable markets emerge – analogous to traditional exchanges.
- Support for clearer regulatory rules to codify definitions of insider trading for prediction markets.
- Kalshi is not just sports: Crypto prediction markets account for 20–30% of volume, perps are orders of magnitude larger. New categories (commodities, politics) are growing rapidly.
- Goal: Become the largest exchange on Earth – combining regulatory strength, technological agility (startup culture, 180 employees), and direct customer relationships.
- Institutional adoption: Block trades (e.g., environmental hedge fund), broker partnerships (Wealthsimple, XP), and integration into SCMs.
- Earlier parallel announcements (NHL, XAI, etc.), now Kalshi has a clear lead: 4-5x larger in crypto, first-mover in regulated perps and institutional deals.
- Third parties tried to play both platforms against each other – this effect has subsided.
Conclusion: Kalshi is pursuing an ambitious strategy to evolve from a sports-heavy prediction platform into the leading regulated exchange for predictions and perpetual futures – targeting mass market, institutional clients, and new asset classes.
