Welcome to Nofinity

Should You Buy Bitcoin Now?

Is it too late for Bitcoin? Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% from its October 2025 high of around $126,000, currently trading at about $65,000. The Fear & Greed Index is at 18 – deep extreme fear. However, history shows that everyone who ever asked 'Is it too late?' turned out to be early.

📉 Current Situation at a Glance

• Price: ~$65,000 (48% below the peak)
• 14-day RSI: 34.6 – nearing oversold territory
• 200-day moving average: 18% below – technically a broken trend
• ETF outflows: A record $4.4 billion in 13 days of continuous outflows
• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): Sold Bitcoin for the first time in 3.5 years – but only 0.004% of its holdings

🔄 Historical Pattern: Every 'Too Late' Was an Entry Point

• 2013: At $100, many thought they missed the boat; year-end price: $1,100.
• 2017: At $1,000, fear of a bubble prevailed; year-end price: $19,800.
• Even buying the all-time high of $20,000: By October 2025, still a +500% gain.
• 2021: After the crash to $15,500, Bitcoin surged to $126,000 (+700%).

Key takeaway: The question 'Is it too late?' is not a signal of the top, but a recurring feature of every cycle.

🔍 Bear Case vs. Reality

Bear Argument	Counterargument
ETF outflows signal capitulation	Senior Analyst Eric Balchunas: Outflows are 'totally meaningless' against $100 billion in AUM; the trend has already reversed.
Strategy sold – breaking 'Never Sell' rule	Sale of 32 BTC (0.004% of holdings) – purely to meet dividend obligations; immediately bought 1,550 BTC afterwards.
Analysts predict $40,000 – $48,000	Other analysts see the low at $59,000 and a year-end target of $100,000.

🧠 The Core Insight: Time in the Market > Timing

• Dalbar study: The average investor underperforms the market by panic buying and selling.
• Missing the 10 best trading days can slash returns by 30–50% over decades.
• Even buying at the worst possible moment beats holding cash.

✅ Three Principles for Your Decision

1. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) vs. Lump Sum: During drawdowns of 20–70% (like now at -48%), DCA reduces the risk of panic selling.
2. Proper Position Sizing: Only invest what you can afford to lose. Overleveraged positions caused $1.76 billion in liquidations in June.
3. Long-Term Horizon: If you need the money in 1–2 years, avoid Bitcoin. With 4+ years, history rewards patience.

👀 What to Watch

• ETF inflows: Is the June 12th inflow day the start of a trend?
• Realized losses: A spike would mark the final bottom.
• Long-term holder supply: Currently 61% – a sign of strength if it stays.
• Your own psychology: Base decisions on your plan, not on a number on a screen.

Visa Just Picked The WINNING Stablecoin (It’s Not USDT or USDC)

Visa is integrating OUSD (Open USD), a new stablecoin backed by a consortium of over 167 companies – including BlackRock, Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and Google. Unlike USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle), OUSD is not controlled by a single issuer but governed by the Open Standard alliance.

Key Differences

• Free minting & redemption for partner companies
• Revenue sharing: Nearly all interest income from reserve assets is distributed to partners – Open Standard only retains a small operational fee.
• Collaborative governance: Decisions are made collectively, not by one entity.

Why This Threatens Circle and Tether

• Circle generated ~$770M in Q4 2025, Tether $10B in annual profit – mostly from T-bill interest.
• OUSD’s model: If it generates $1B in its first year, each of the 167 partners would receive ~$6M.
• Market reaction: Circle’s stock dropped 17% after the announcement; Mizuho downgraded CRCL from Neutral to Underperform, cutting the price target from $85 to $50.

Visa’s Strategy: Not Just One Coin

Visa’s CEO insists the company remains multi-coin and multi-chain. OUSD is only the first stablecoin on Visa’s new platform for banks and fintechs. Visa continues to support USDC, EURC, PYUSD, and others. The real product is the infrastructure, not favoritism.

Potential Market Impact

• Circle may have to share more reserve income with partners to retain them.
• Tether is less affected – its focus is on emerging markets, while OUSD targets institutional and commercial payments.
• Skepticism: Previous consortium models (e.g., Paxos USDG) struggled. OUSD’s success depends on real liquidity and user adoption.

Ironic Twist

Traditional financial institutions (Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock) are now building the next generation of on-chain dollars – the very institutions crypto was supposed to disrupt.

Conclusion

OUSD could challenge the duopoly of USDT and USDC, but it must first build trust and liquidity. Even if it fails, it forces incumbents to improve their terms. The era of unchallenged dominance for Tether and Circle is ending.

📊 You vs. Average: Money, Income and Wealth in Germany

In this video, Markus from Finanzf shows where you stand compared to the average German – from income and spending to wealth and pension.

💰 Income

• Average salary (full-time, 2025): €6,441 gross/month
• Median income: €5,466 – earning more means you belong to the richer half
• Income distribution:
  • Bottom 10%: up to €33,828
  • Bottom third: approx. €44,000
  • Top 20%: from about €80,000
  • Top 10%: from about €100,000
  • Top 1%: from €219,110

🏠 Sources of Income (ages 25–64)

• 76% live mainly from employment (men 83%, women 69%)
• 8% from relatives (mostly women: 13%)
• 6% from unemployment benefits
• 5% from pension
• 3% from social welfare/sick pay
• 1% from parental allowance (almost only women)
• 1% from own assets

⚠️ Poverty Risk

• Threshold: 60% of median net household income
• Single person: below €1,446 net/month
• 2 adults + 2 children (<14): below €3,036
• 16.1% of the population at risk of poverty (2025)
  • Highest rates: unemployed (64.9%), singles (30.9%), single parents (28.7%), retirees (19.1%)

🛒 Consumer Spending (2023, avg €3,030/month)

• Housing: 38% (2018: 34%) – for low-income households (<€1,300 net) even 46%
• Food: 14%
• Transport: 12%
• Leisure/Sports/Culture: 9%
• Restaurants/Hotels: 7%
• Information/Communication: 5%
• Clothing/Shoes: 4%

🏡 Homeownership

• Homeownership rate: 47% (EU's lowest; EU average 68%)
  • Leader: Romania (94%)
  • In Germany: Saarland 60%, Berlin only 16%

💸 Saving & Debt

• Savings rate: 10.3% (2024: 11.2%; EU average 8%)
• Gross savings rate: 20% (EU 14.6%)
• Emergency fund: 32% of households cannot cover an unexpected €1,300 expense
• Over-indebtedness: 8.16% of adults
  • Causes: 23% for single parents (separation/divorce/death), 18% illness/accident, 17% unemployment

💎 Net Wealth

• Median: €10,300 per household (Eurozone: €14,000)
  • Bottom 10%: up to €800
  • Bottom 40%: up to €50,000
  • Top 20%: from €471,000
  • Top 10%: from €775,000
• Why little wealth despite saving?
  • 65% of financial assets are low-risk (cash, accounts, guaranteed insurance)
  • Only 23% in capital markets (14% funds, 7% stocks, 2% bonds)
  • Real return (inflation-adjusted): only 0.6% p.a. – only the richest 10% achieve positive real returns
  • Positive: 2025, 14 million people owned stocks/funds/ETFs (record) – especially younger people (14–39) and those in Bavaria

👴 Pension

• Median gross pension: between €900 and €1,200 – 50% receive even less
• Large gender gap

Conclusion: Germans save a lot but with low returns – and the state pension is often insufficient. This comparison helps to realistically assess your own financial position.

Mixed Signals in the U.S. Labor Market

This video breaks down the latest labor market data and why the Fed is facing uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

• Non-farm payrolls came in at 23,000 vs. expectations of 80,000 – the first negative monthly change since 2025.
• Despite weak job growth, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.5% (November) to 4.1%.
• Reason: The labor force participation rate fell sharply from 62.5% to 61.4%. Many people have stopped looking for work and are no longer counted as unemployed.
• Layoffs remain low: Initial jobless claims hit 189,000 – the lowest level in decades.
• Regional divergence: Some states see rising unemployment, others falling. Unlike a typical recession (e.g., 2008), the whole country is not affected.
• Globally, the GDP-weighted unemployment rate is ticking up but has recently stabilized.

Monetary Policy & Outlook

• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September is only about 44%.
• Several central banks (Brazil, South Korea, Australia) have resumed rate hikes; the global easing cycle has stalled.
• Recession risk remains low according to the dashboard. As long as initial claims stay below 300,000, no imminent recession.
• A stock market correction is expected around mid-September, similar to prior midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022).

Bottom line: The labor market sends mixed signals – weak job creation, but few layoffs and falling unemployment due to workers dropping out. The Fed is cautious, while markets await a clear direction.

Overview

The Eureka Zero 55S is a revised single-dosing grinder priced at around €250 – a significant drop from its predecessor (€330–400) due to production shifting to China. It targets beginners on a tight budget who still want quality espresso at home.

Design & Operation

• King‑Size grind adjustment wheel: Enables fine, reproducible settings – a huge improvement over the old mini‑wheel.
• Front lever: Starts/stops grinding without reaching behind – more accessible and practical.
• Portafilter holder with integrated switch; assembly requires Phillips screws (an “IKEA moment”).

Grind Performance & Particle Distribution

• Narrow, tall main peak (around 205 µm) – many uniform particles.
• High fines peak (>40%) – many small particles that can cause a dry, dusty aftertaste.
• Tip: For drier coffees, grind slightly coarser and extract shorter (25–26 seconds).
• Overall body‑forward – clarity from the main peak, but always plenty of texture.

Speed & Noise

• 18 g in 10.5 seconds, ~21 g/min – solid mid‑range.
• 83 dB – quiet operation, typical pleasant Eureka grinding sound.
• Temperature stable over 5 consecutive shots.

Cleaning

• Grind setting stays intact when opening (adjustment from below) – major plus.
• Still requires a Phillips screwdriver, removal of logo plate and burrs – somewhat fiddly.
• Recommendation: Purge with grinder cleaner every 1–2 weeks, disassemble and brush monthly.

Retention

• Temporary retention: 1.1 g – relatively high for a single‑dosing grinder.
• Permanent retention: 1.6 g – total 2.7 g.
• A tilting base (forward tilt) can reduce temporary retention by about 0.5 g.
• Consistency is good nonetheless: standard deviation of 0.05 g over five consecutive grinds.

Conclusion

• For €250, a very solid entry‑level grinder that handles 60–70% of all coffees well.
• Ideal paired with a budget espresso machine (total setup from ~€400).
• No digital weak points – pure mechanical quality.
• Caveat: High retention requires a bit more care and regular cleaning.

Testers’ verdict: Fun to use, delivers tasty espresso, and offers excellent value in its price range.

Tokenized Stocks: The Future of Stock Trading?

This video explains why tokenized stocks (RWAs) are revolutionizing the stock market. They offer 24/7 trading, lower fees, faster settlement, and transparency via the blockchain. Traditional stocks are limited to exchange hours and require multiple intermediaries.

Problems of the First Generation of Tokenized Stocks

• No real shareholder rights (no voting rights, ownership stays with the custodian)
• Low liquidity (thin secondary markets, wide spreads)
• Regulatory uncertainty and high complexity due to cross-chain bridges

BitGet's Stock 2.0 Model

BitGet introduced two products: Stock Plus and R Tokens.

• Stock Plus: Enables direct ownership of over 10,000 stocks. You invest directly, receive cash dividends, and can transfer stocks from other brokers.
• R Tokens: Tokenized US stocks and ETFs that track the price 1:1. No direct ownership, but compatible with DeFi (use as collateral, futures, copy trading, grid trading). You receive dividends automatically in USDT.

Benefits of R Tokens on BitGet

• One account for crypto and tokenized stocks
• Automated strategies via trading bots (Auto Invest, Smart Portfolios)
• First Cross-Asset Unified Account (UTA): Over 370 tokenized assets in a single margin pool
• Commission-free trading for R tokens, no management fees
• Up to $500,000 SIPC protection through the partner broker Alpaca

Risks & Conclusion

R tokens do not offer voting rights, dividends may be subject to deductions, and trading is not always 24/7. Using them as collateral carries liquidation risks. However, the potential is huge: Even a 1% tokenization of global stocks creates a multi-trillion dollar market by 2030. BitGet's Stock 2.0 could take a leading role.

Expert opinion: CEO Gracie Chen predicts that about 10% of all financial assets will be tokenized by 2030.

This stock market briefing by Mario Lochner analyzes the current market situation where strong quarterly results are no longer enough to lift stock prices and price targets are being slashed. The focus is on the week's winners and losers, the contrasting views of bulls and bears, and the impact of the latest jobs report and liquidity conditions.

Weekly Winners and Losers

• Palantir beat all expectations, raised guidance, stock temporarily +30%.
• Caterpillar with +23.5% revenue and +65% net profit.
• Shopify with strong outlook.
• C4 Therapeutics (biotech) nearly doubled, but highly speculative.
• Sandisk delivered record numbers but was sold off – Jefferies cut its price target almost in half (from $3,000 to $1,750).
• Western Digital and SK Hynix also fell sharply despite good results.
• Honeywell weak balance sheet, cut guidance, stock -20%.
• Zalando and Figma (high operating costs) disappointed.

Bear Arguments: "The Party is Over"

• Bond markets flash warning: high US debt, rising rates in Japan, US forced to support the yen.
• Hyperscalers take on more debt (Alphabet $25 billion new bonds).
• Oil price above $80, US inventories at 1984 lows – new crisis looming.
• Good results no longer matter: Stocks sold off despite record earnings – forward P/E falls while earnings expectations rise.
• Speculation: SP call options surge – a toxic mix.

Bull Arguments: "Skepticism is the Best Foundation"

• Earnings season outstanding: 86% of S&P 500 companies beat profit estimates (average 78%).
• Forward P/E drops from 20.4 to 19.6 while 12-month earnings expectations rose 3.3% – market pays less for more earnings.
• Earnings revisions spike (Citadel chart) – not yet priced in.
• AI demand explodes: Hyperscaler spending rises (2025: $426B, 2026: $779B, 2027: $1.2T). Prices for old chips (Nvidia A1) even increase.
• US economy resilient: Manufacturing PMI high, hiring plans strong, Atlanta Fed Nowcast near 6%.
• Many bears – historically no bull market ends this way.

Jobs Report and Liquidity

• Nonfarm Payrolls: -23,000 (expected +80,000), but unemployment rate at 4.1% lower than expected (4.2%).
• Revisions: -103,000 for prior months.
• Effect: Temporarily eases pressure for rate hikes (Fed probability dropped from 70% to coin flip).
• Inflation less feared: inflation expectations falling.
• Financial conditions are good, money supply growing, fiscal put in place.

Investment Ideas and Special Topics

• Real Assets: Triceratops skull investment via Timeless (from €50). Market value €843,600, IPO €775,800 (8.7% below market). Comparison: Big John skeleton sold for €6.6 million.
• Value stock Vinci: Construction group with motorway and airport concessions (70+ airports, e.g., London Gatwick). Benefits from AI boom (power grids, data centers). P/E 13, attractive dividend.
• Firefighting: Companies like Perimeter Solutions (fire retardant), but complex business – caution on headlines.
• Drone ETF (Han ETF) with holdings like Palantir, Drone Shield, etc.

Moderator's Conclusion

• Bullish but cautious: Volatility remains high, expectations extreme. Diversification and real assets help. Not investment advice.