Benjamin Cowen|01. Sept.
Gold: The Next Big Move
📉 Gold: The Next Big Move – A 2026 Analysis
The analyst shares his outlook on the current gold price and future prospects. He remains optimistic for the long-term bull market but expects short-term weakness.
📊 Current Market Situation & Short-Term Outlook- Gold is in a correction cycle (midterm year 2026), typical for a presidential election environment.
- After a strong start to the year, the gold price fell approximately 30% (which is historically normal; the 1970s bull market saw a nearly 50% decline).
- The summer low (June/July) was seasonally typical, and gold has already recovered around 20%.
- We are currently experiencing another pullback, which is expected to last 2-4 weeks and extend into mid-September or October.
- Most Likely Outcome (65% chance): Gold forms a higher low in September/October and then starts a rally.
- Possible Outcome (35% chance): A deeper low occurs (testing the June lows), similar to the patterns in 2018 and 2022. Even then, the bull market would not be over.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: Expected to increase further, boosting gold as a safe haven.
- Central Banks: Globally, central banks are likely to continue buying gold.
- Monetary Policy & USD: The analyst expects a temporary strength in the US Dollar (DXY), triggered by potential Fed rate hikes in the coming months. This will pressure gold in the short term. Once the dollar weakens again, gold should benefit.
- No New All-Time Highs by Mid-2027: If gold fails to reach new highs by then, the bullish thesis would need to be reconsidered.
- The analyst believes the peak of the gold bull market is still ahead of us.
- Comparison to 1974: The pattern (strong start, summer low, recovery, final pullback, then rally to new highs) closely resembles the current cycle. A recovery into a pre-election year (2027) is seen as likely.
- Short-term (October): Slight weakness due to a stronger dollar.
- Medium-term (End of 2026): Strong recovery from a (possibly higher) autumn low.
- Long-term (2027+): A fresh attempt at all-time highs.
📌 Key Action: Monitor the period from September to October to confirm the pattern of a higher or lower low. An entry near one of these lows could be worthwhile.
