
Gold: Seeking a Low
This video analyzes the current gold price movement, focusing on finding a potential low through historical comparisons and seasonal trends.
- Current Gold Price: ~$4,400. 2026 is viewed as a reset year for gold, with an expected peak early in the year.
- Midterm Year Seasonality: Historically, gold drops into the summer, with an average low around July 6th. This year follows that pattern but with higher volatility.
- 1974 Comparison: Striking similarity: Gold dropped almost 30% in 1974, found a summer low, then formed a higher low in September before rallying to new all-time highs. A similar outcome is possible now.
- Bull Market Support Band: Gold nearly bounced off the support zone (20-month SMA and 21-month EMA), indicating a healthy bull market structure.
- Potential Low: The analyst expects a low between now and mid-October. A higher low (above the summer low) is more likely than a lower low.
- US Dollar Impact: An anticipated stronger dollar (due to inflation and possible Fed rate hikes) is weighing on gold short-term. However, gold is already pricing this in, so the low may occur before the dollar actually rises.
- Long-Term Outlook: If gold fails to reach new all-time highs by mid-2027, the thesis would need revision. Until then, the 1974 analogy remains the base case.






