Benjamin Cowen|13. Juli
Gold: Price Path and Forecast for the Rest of the Year
Introduction: Gold Forecast for the Rest of 2026
In this video, the speaker analyzes the current gold price (around $4,000) and provides a detailed outlook for the remainder of 2026. He emphasizes that gold often undergoes a correction during midterm election years (like 2026) before recovering.
Main Thesis: Correction and Expected Bottom- The speaker expects a major correction in 2026, with a bottom between July and October.
- This assessment is based on seasonality and historical comparisons with previous midterm years (2018, 2022, 2006, etc.).
- On average, gold bottoms in early July during midterm years, though individual cases (like 2014) have seen lows as late as November.
- Gold is currently trading about 7-8% below its yearly opening price – similar to 2018 and 2022 at this point.
- A recent death cross (50-day moving average below 200-day) has occurred, which often triggers a short-term rally. However, the 50-day MA has not been tested since May.
- The Bull Market Support Band for gold consists of the 20-month SMA and 21-month EMA – currently around $3,800 – $3,841.
- This support zone has not been touched since 2023. The speaker expects gold to find its bottom there (or slightly above).
- Historical bull markets (1970s, 2000s) show that gold usually rebounds strongly after testing this band.
- The current drawdown of 28% is similar to 2006 (26%), when gold did not quite reach the support band but later rallied to new highs.
- During the 2008 financial crisis, gold corrected more sharply but recovered faster than stocks (S&P 500), reaching new all-time highs by 2009.
- The tariff shock in early 2025 also showed gold’s resilience: it barely dropped and recovered quickly.
- The speaker believes gold will form a bottom within the next few months (July to October).
- Afterwards, he expects a recovery and renewed uptrend starting in late 2026 and continuing into 2027.
- Even if the Bull Market Support Band fails, he anticipates a multi-month rally that would confirm his thesis.
- For the S&P 500, he predicts a shallow correction in June, a rally in July, and a larger drop in August/September.
The speaker remains bullish on gold: the midterm-year correction is normal, and gold will emerge stronger on the other side. The “Investing Through the Cycles” conference in Miami (November 2026) is highlighted as a key event to discuss developments.
