DER AKTIONÄR TV|13. Mai
Gold and silver mines are turning bullish - are the next multi-baggers on the horizon?
🌍 Market Overview: S&P 500 Strong, DAX Weakens
- The S&P 500 is trading near 7,500 points at a new all-time high with strong momentum.
- The DAX, in contrast, has broken its uptrend and is barely above the 200-day moving average. A sell signal appeared on the 2-hour chart.
- Key takeaway: As long as the US market remains stable, the DAX is more likely to correct than crash.
- Critical factor: 30-year US interest rates are approaching the 5.15% level. A breakout could trigger a bond squeeze and weigh on equities.
- Semiconductors (SOXX): After a massive rally, the sector is in a consolidation at high levels. Yesterday's 8% drop is seen as a normal pullback.
- Energy (XLE) vs. Technology (XLK): Both sectors are at similar levels. Investors are positioning heavily in these areas due to geopolitical risks (Strait of Hormuz).
- New rotation: Over the last 5 days, Silver Mining and Copper Mining ETFs showed the strongest performance, indicating a sector rotation.
- Gold and Silver Miners: The GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and Silver Miners ETF show strong buy signals: consolidation, breakout, rising trend intensity, and relative strength vs. the S&P 500.
- 40 ETFs are ranked daily by relative strength (200 days). Leaders: Semiconductors (SOXX), followed by commodity ETFs.
- 80% of all ETFs are above the 200-day moving average, but only 37.5% outperform the S&P 500. This indicates a healthy market structure.
- Spread Rate of Change: The Silver Miners ETF outperformed the S&P by 85% over 252 days, and by 18% over the last 5 days. A clear rotation signal.
- Individual Mining Stocks: 100% of the 48 monitored mining stocks are above GD200, 87% above GD50. Two weeks ago, only 27% were above the 50-day line.
- Profitable positions:
- Verizon: +17% since April 29, trend intact.
- Verisign (domain registry): +40%, remaining potential up to 1,000%.
- CrowdStrike (cybersecurity): +190% in one week.
- Tesla: +58%, breakout from consolidation.
- United Airlines: +70% after 2 days (W-bottom breakout).
- Loss-making positions:
- NextEra Energy: -32%, but high potential on recovery.
- Chevron: -13%, good hedge against geopolitical risks.
- Schneider Electric: -15%, trend still intact.
- Sold positions: BSV, Allianz, Goldman Sachs (time exit) and JP Morgan (stopped out at -62%).
- Hypothetical model portfolio: Started with €20,000, currently up 155%. Each position sized at €1,000.
- Hit rate: 32% of positions are profitable. This is intentional, as the strategy optimizes for large wins (avg. +218%) with small losses (avg. -48%).
- Conclusion: Semiconductors are consolidating; Gold and Silver miners show new buy signals. Focus remains on US markets.
- All mentioned values and price targets refer to derivatives (leveraged products) and carry high risk.
- This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
