InvestAnswers|29. Mai
🔥 Blow Ups, Outages, Options Expiry! Level 4 🚖 and Crazy Minting Galore
📉 Bitcoin & Crypto: Market Shifting
- Bitcoin is hovering around $74,000, struggling with this level. May is down 3%, although it's usually the second strongest month.
- Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding heavily: $1.2 billion outflows in the last three weeks, another $1.2 billion this week. Despite the outflows, the price drop is less than expected – indicating hidden buying.
- Options expiry: $9 billion in Bitcoin options expire today. Max pain is at $74,000. If the price stays above, bulls win; below, bears win.
- Crypto ranking: Bitcoin has fallen to 28th among global assets – behind Tesla, Meta, and even the Swiss Franc.
- Hype coins and rotations: Solid ETFs continue to attract funds, while Ethereum outflows of nearly $250 million this week show a rotation into new narratives like Hype, Zcash, and Solana.
- Sui (SUI) suffered a major software glitch: the network went down for over 5 hours yesterday, and again today. Unlike Solana, which had congestion issues, this is a bug. Analysts urge caution as SUI remains expensive compared to Solana.
- Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan) went on a live TV rant against the Clarity Act. He opposes yield-bearing stablecoins, fearing they will drain billions from banks.
- Brian Armstrong (Coinbase) is investing hundreds of millions in lobbying for the act – a fierce battle between the two camps.
- May was strong: Micron +81%, AMD +54%, Tesla +17%. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" no longer holds.
- Bubble comparisons: Costco (P/E 45) and Walmart (P/E 36) are more expensive than Nvidia (P/E 17). The question is: what is really overvalued?
- Tesla Cybercab: First driverless vehicles are rolling out of the Giga Texas factory. Elon Musk and AI chief Ashok confirmed they will soon be operating autonomously in Austin.
- Level 4 in Texas: Tesla has been certified for commercial, driverless operations since May 28 – a milestone.
- Optimus Robot: The 10-million-unit factory in Texas is taking shape. Production in California is being converted to Optimus.
- Blue Origin Explosion: A Jeff Bezos test flight ended with a 1-kiloton explosion, destroying the entire platform. No injuries, but massive setbacks for NASA and the Starlink competitor.
- SpaceX dominates: Remains the only reliable heavy-lift provider. The IPO hype is fueling synthetic ETFs on SpaceX – 2x Long, Short, all available, even before the company goes public.
- Millionaire Minting: SpaceX employees are about to cash in: 4,000 workers will soon be worth at least $1 million, 500 of them over $100 million. A showcase of Elon Musk's wealth distribution effect.
- M2 money supply continues to rise – the Fed has printed $9 trillion under Powell. This pushes core inflation to its highest level since early 2023.
- Rate hikes didn't work because inflation is driven by oil prices and money supply growth. Yet risk assets like AI stocks remain strong – a sign of a new era.
- Amazon return label for a Glenn rocket ($59 million): Reason "too explody." A humorous end to serious topics.
