Benjamin Cowen|21. Mai
Ethereum: Rejected off the Bear Market Resistance Band
Ethereum: Rejected at the Bear Market Resistance Band – Market Outlook
This video analyzes Ethereum's recent rejection at the bear market resistance band and explains why a further decline toward the lower logarithmic regression band (roughly the April 2025 low) is likely.
Key Takeaways:
- Current Situation: Ethereum was rejected at the “Bear Market Resistance Band,” confirming the ongoing downtrend.
- Regression Model: ETH’s fair value is currently below $2,000 according to the logarithmic regression model. The lower band of this model could mark the cycle bottom.
- Capitulation: Many investors are giving up on Ethereum, as the price has barely made new all-time highs in the last five years. Holding cash has sometimes been more profitable.
- 2019 Analogy: The current cycle mirrors 2019, when a rally was followed by a drop back into the regression band. A significant recovery only came much later.
- Potential Bottom: A low could occur as early as June 2025 (similar to the last cycle), but Q4 2025 is considered more likely.
- ETH/BTC Pair: The ETH/BTC ratio is in a downtrend due to tighter monetary policy (rate hikes) and Bitcoin’s fundamental superiority. Even if Bitcoin stays at $60,000 (approx. €55,200), Ethereum could fall further due to the weakening ratio.
- Risk Factors: Geopolitical tensions (Middle East) and rising energy prices are fueling inflation, leading to tighter monetary policy. High-risk assets like Ethereum suffer the most.
- Bank of Japan: Potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in June could trigger major liquidations in Ethereum.
- Outlook: A drop to the April 2025 lows is expected in the short term. Without a recession, this could be the final low. A recession would imply further declines.
Core Message: Ethereum is in a structural downtrend. Investors should prepare for more downside before a sustainable recovery can begin.
