Welcome to Nofinity

📈 Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin on Wall Street

In July, US spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $365 million, while Bitcoin ETFs managed only $172 million – following record outflows for Bitcoin ETFs in prior months. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries have overtaken ETFs as the main driver of ETH accumulation: 67 companies now hold over 8.2 million ETH (~6.8% of supply), with the vast majority staked.

🏦 The Key Difference: Staking Makes ETH Productive

While Bitcoin's treasury model (e.g., Strategy) relies on external financing, Ethereum balance sheets grow organically through staking rewards. Bit Mine (5.8M ETH, 87% staked) generates ~134,800 ETH per year – worth $250–290 million annually. The asset grows itself without needing new capital.

🏛️ Institutional Infrastructure Is Being Built

• BNY Mellon (custodian of $62.6 trillion) integrates native staking rewards into its platform.
• BlackRock launched ETHB (staked Ethereum product) and executed a reverse split to lower costs for institutional block traders.
• Tokenized treasuries ($15.2 billion) settle 43% on Ethereum – BlackRock’s BSTBL launched on Ethereum with BNY as tokenization agent.

⚠️ The Big Debate: EIP-8361 – Lower Yield for More Security?

Proposal EIP-8361 (“Tapered Issuance Burn”) would cut staking rewards from ~2.6% to ~1.1–1.2% once staking participation reaches 50%. Goal: prevent over-concentration among large stakers. Reactions are fierce: DeFi protocols and liquid staking providers criticize the move, while others (e.g., Grayscale) support it. No formal implementation has been decided yet.

💡 Bottom Line: Bitcoin Remains Reserve, Ethereum Becomes Infrastructure

Bitcoin keeps its identity as a digital reserve asset. Ethereum, however, is being used as programmable financial infrastructure – for settling tokenized assets, stablecoins, and staking yields. Institutional flows show Wall Street wants both, but for different purposes. Right now, ETH is the clear winner for productive use – the only question is how much yield the network is willing to pay to keep it that way.

Current Market Situation

• Bitcoin is trading around $62,000–63,000, and sentiment is low.
• Social metrics and interest are declining; Bitcoin is squeezed between the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band.

Comparison with Previous Cycles

• The current structure closely resembles 2014, 2018, and 2022.
• In those years, Bitcoin fell while the stock market hit new highs – a normal pattern.
• The bear market typically lasts 12 months; we are in month 10.

Volatility and Outlook

• 60-day volatility is at just 1.47% – a historically low level that often precedes a sharp move (up or down).
• The analyst expects a downside breakout to trigger the final cycle bottom.
• Once that bottom is in, the next bull market usually follows within weeks.

Recommendations

• Don't be lulled into complacency: the calm before the storm can be deceptive.
• Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) helps avoid missing the bottom.
• Focus on long-term improvements in the crypto ecosystem, moving away from meme coins toward solid applications.

How to Make Espresso: A Step-by-Step Guide for Home

This video shows how to make great espresso at home with a simple machine (e.g., Dedica or D54) and a grinder. The key is the standard recipe and proper grind adjustment.

The Standard Recipe (double espresso)

• Ratio: 1:2 (coffee to espresso weight). For 15 g coffee → 30 g espresso.
• Brew time: 25–30 seconds.
• Double espresso often yields better results than single.
• Coffee dose: Find the optimal dose for your portafilter – start with the manufacturer's recommendation. Check with the coin trick: After tamping, lock in the portafilter – no imprint of the shower screen should appear in the coffee. Test by placing a coin on the coffee; a gentle imprint is ideal.

The Six Steps

1. Heat the machine: Target temperature: 91–94°C. Don't rely solely on indicator lights; flush hot water through the portafilter to heat it.
2. Grind coffee fresh: Use a grinder (hand grinder from ~€100 works). Start with a medium grind.
3. Dose and distribute: Weigh 15 g. Distribute evenly with hand or a WDT tool to break clumps.
4. Tamp: Tap lightly, then press with at least 8 kg force. Wipe the portafilter clean.
5. Brew: Use a scale to monitor ratio and time. Flush briefly before brewing. Start immediately after locking in the portafilter.
6. Adjust grind:
   • Espresso runs too fast (< 25 s) → grind finer (smaller number). Result: often sour, thin body.
   • Runs too slow (> 30 s) → grind coarser (larger number). Result: bitter, dry.

Goal: A balanced espresso in 25–30 seconds. Slight grind adjustments are normal with new coffee.

Beginner Recommendations

• Start with a chocolatey-cocoa espresso like Kompadre.
• Use a single-dosing grinder or hand grinder for precise doses.

Important Tips

• Always grind and dose fresh.
• Use a scale – guessing leads to inconsistent results.
• Flush after each espresso to keep the machine clean.

The Five Financial Dangers of Your 40s and How to Protect Yourself

Your 40s come with five major financial risks that can threaten your wealth. Here's how to recognize and mitigate them.

1. Slowing Income Growth

• Your household net income peaks statistically between ages 35 and 44. After that, it barely increases or even declines.
• At the same time, household size decreases (e.g., children moving out), so your per-person disposable income may still rise slightly.
• Tip: Use salary increases to boost your savings rate, not for extra consumption. If raises stop, saving becomes much harder.

2. Last Chance to Close the Pension Gap

• At age 40, you still have about 27 years until retirement – enough time, but more expensive than starting at 30.
• Example: To reach €100,000 at 7% return, you need:
  • Starting at 40: ~€100/month
  • Starting at 30: ~€50/month
  • Starting at 20: ~€20/month
• Lesson: Start no later than 40; waiting until 50 makes it three times as expensive.

3. Rising Costs for Children and Aging Parents

• Teenagers cost an average of €953 per month (2018 data, now higher due to inflation).
• Elderly parents: Many people aged 45–64 become caregivers. This takes time, may force you to reduce work hours, lowering income and pension contributions.
• Consequence: Better to have too much savings than too little to handle this double burden.

4. Health Risk: Disability

• One in five workers will become disabled before retirement. The average age for first disability is 48.
• Effect: Your human capital (future earnings) collapses. You must rely on saved financial capital – or even tap into it.
• Protection: Disability insurance (Berufsunfähigkeitsversicherung) is especially valuable when your financial capital is still low. Assess your personal risk.

5. Divorce – The Biggest Wealth Destroyer

• Average divorce age: women 45, men 48.
• A study found that men lose 82%, women 76% of their wealth due to divorce – and the loss persists for 6 to 15 years.
• Causes: double housing costs, loss of tax benefits, forced sale of shared property at a bad price.
• Countermeasure: A prenuptial agreement can reduce legal costs and avoid disputes. Clear rules for shared property (e.g., not selling) can limit losses. Complete avoidance is unlikely.

Bottom line: Your 40s are financially treacherous. The earlier you know these risks and take action, the better off you'll be.

Europe's War on Tether Is About to Get Much Worse

This video analyzes the increasing regulatory displacement of Tether (USDT) in Europe and the global implications. The EU is not banning Tether directly, but is using licenses and regulation to force exchanges and financial firms to stop offering the stablecoin.

Key Deadlines and Developments

• August 31, 2025: Revolut will automatically convert remaining USDT in European accounts into fiat.
• July 1, 2026: End of transitional periods for legacy tokens under MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation).
• From 2027: Significantly stricter rules that also affect private wallets.

Tether's Stance and the Reasons Behind It

• MiCA Reserve Rules: Non-significant issuers must hold 30% of reserves at European banks; significant issuers (like Tether) even 60%.
• Tether's Objection: CEO Paolo Ardoino considers bank deposits riskier than US Treasury bills, as they are unsecured claims on fractional-reserve banks. European deposit insurance only covers €100,000 – a drop in the ocean compared to billion-dollar reserves.
• Evidence: Circle's USDC depegged to $0.87 in 2023 because reserves were stuck at Silicon Valley Bank. A dollar token broke because its dollars were parked in the wrong place.

Market Shift: Who Benefits?

• Circle (USDC) as the biggest beneficiary: Licensed in France, passported across Europe, becoming the default dollar on regulated exchanges.
• Euro stablecoins are concentrating around banks and established financial institutions (e.g., EURCV from Société Générale, EURI from Banking Circle).
• Regulation has deliberately pushed the market toward traditional financial institutions.

Tether's Workaround

• Tether did not really leave Europe; instead, it bought stakes in regulated issuers, e.g., Quantoz (EURQ) in the Netherlands and Stabler (EURR) in Malta.
• Also launched Hadron, a tokenization platform for institutions, and supports USAT via US-regulated bank Anchorage Digital.
• Thus, Tether also profits from the regulated market instead of merely fighting it.

Global Regulatory Wave

• USA: GENIUS Act (July 2025), foreign stablecoins only under strict conditions; enforcement from 2027.
• UK: FCA rules from 2027.
• Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Canada: Similar licensing and reserve requirements.
• All countries follow the same pattern: licensing, reserve mandates, enforcement at the intermediary level rather than individuals.

Phase 2: Anti-Money Laundering Package

• From 2027: Transfers over €1,000 between regulated exchanges and self-hosted wallets require identity verification.
• Article 58 will ban anonymity-enhancing assets like Monero, Zcash, and Dash from regulated European platforms starting July 2027.
• The new Anti-Money Laundering Authority in Frankfurt takes over supervision from 2027.

Assessment and Conclusion

• Holding USDT is legal in the EU, as are self-custody and peer-to-peer transfers.
• The pressure is applied at the on-ramp – i.e., via exchanges and financial intermediaries.
• This is not about consumer protection, but about control over digital dollars and who is allowed to issue them.
• Europe is pushing the stablecoin market into the hands of banks; if rules are relaxed, the effort will have been in vain.
• The permissionless infrastructure (e.g., DeFi) remains functional and is the only part that no government can fully regulate.

Key question to viewers: Did Tether act correctly by refusing the bank reserve requirement? And will Circle completely take over the European market?

📊 Weekly Review: One Spark is Enough – Investors Could Look Foolish

Mario Lochner hosts the Saturday briefing. Markets are strong, hitting new all-time highs. Focus: a single spark that could finally defeat the bears, and full disclosure of all purchases made on July 30.

🏆 Winners & Losers of the Week

• Winners: Nebius (+30%, revenue +454%), CoreWeave (revenue doubled), Super Micro (guidance +30% above expectations), TKMS (double-digit gain), Westas (strong bank sector), Rocky Mountain Chocolate (exploring sale/merger), Birkenstock (+13%), Workday (+26% on takeover rumors).
• Losers: Cisco (record quarter but stock fell), On Holding (pricing concerns), PNE (failed sale process), JD.com (revenue decline), Cerebras (missed revenue estimates), HelloFresh, Energiekontor, Evotec.

🐻 Bears vs. Bulls: The Situation

• Bears warn of an AI bubble, rising sovereign debt, oil near $90, US strategic reserves at 40-year low. They predict a single "spark" could trigger a crash.
• Bulls counter: inflation is falling (CPI on target, PPI at 4.7% below 4.9% forecast), supply chains easing, rate hikes becoming less likely (Fed Watch Tool: 2/3 expect no hike in September).
• Sentiment: More bears than bulls (37.9% vs 34.7%) – a contrarian bullish signal.

📈 Disclosed Purchases (July 30) & Performance

Stock	Performance Since Purchase
Teradyne	+85%
Onto Innovation	+52%
Marvell	+35%
SK Hynix	+28%
Teradata	+24%
OneStop Systems	+18%
Taiwan Semiconductor	+13%
Cleanspark	−7%

Lochner emphasizes these trades are documented in the Beating Beta portfolio and criticizes earlier skeptics.

🔍 Four Bear Myths Refuted

1. Chips lose value quickly – Counterexample: CoreWeave’s 6-year-old A100 chips are contractually committed until 2029. GPU rental prices continue to rise.
2. Neoclouds will go bankrupt – Nebius shows explosive growth and pricing power. Management: "We could sell capacity for 2027 today, but deliberately hold some for immediate customer needs."
3. AI winter is coming – IT budgets have significant room to grow; agentic AI will multiply demand sixfold by 2026. SK Hynix and Samsung plan buybacks and special dividends.
4. Hyperscalers are burning cash – Despite high capex, cloud revenues are surging (Google >80%). Semianalysis expects cloud growth to double by 2027.

💡 Dividend Kings & Outlook

• Introduction of a free list of stocks with decades of dividend growth (e.g., Sysco (SYY): food distributor with 56 years of dividend increases, simple business model, vast network).
• Market outlook: Financial conditions excellent (Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index), historically strong S&P 500 earnings revisions, low volatility. A potential drop in oil prices (if Iran tensions ease) could fuel further rally. Lochner advises staying invested but with risk management.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. All content is for educational purposes only.