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On May 29, 2026, the CFTC approved a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract on US soil for the first time in history. This is a major milestone for the crypto market, as perpetual futures are the single largest trading product in the crypto space.

• Background: The derivatives market is 5 to 10 times larger than the spot market. Until now, US traders had severely limited access, as over 90% of volume was executed on unregulated offshore exchanges.
• Two separate actions:
  • Kalshi received a full commission order. This is the highest regulatory stamp the CFTC can issue. Their product (BTC Perp) is a fully compliant, domestic perpetual futures contract with KYC, position limits, and central clearing.
  • Coinbase received only a 'no-action letter'. This allows Coinbase to route US clients to its offshore affiliate, Darabit – a bridge to offshore liquidity, but not a true domestic product.

A perpetual (or 'perp') is a derivative that allows you to bet long or short on an asset's price with leverage, without ever owning it. Unlike traditional futures, a perp has no expiration date. The price is tethered to the spot market via a funding rate mechanism (every 8 hours).

• Volume: Global perp volume in 2025 ranged between $61.7 and $92.9 trillion (up from $28 trillion in 2023).
• Significance: Perps account for over 70% of all volume on centralized crypto exchanges.

• Institutional capital: US pension funds, hedge funds, and asset managers are prohibited from trading on unregulated offshore exchanges. The approval opens the door to the deepest hedging instruments in crypto (e.g., delta-neutral strategies).
• Demand: Kalshi saw $1 billion in trading volume in its first week and open interest of $810 million (up 28% in one week). This shows massive pent-up demand.
• Comparison: Similar to spot Bitcoin ETFs, the perp approval opens a new regulatory compliant front door for institutional investors.

While the decision is generally bullish for perpetual futures as a product category, it is specifically aimed against decentralized and permissionless exchanges like Hyperliquid.

• Hyperliquid is the dominant perp provider (over 50% of on-chain perpetual volume, over 70% of decentralized open interest).
• The Problem: The CFTC only approved fully compliant venues (KYC, position limits, central clearing). Hyperliquid is the opposite: permissionless, no KYC, leverage up to 250x, and the ability to list almost anything (e.g., synthetic SpaceX shares).
• Market Reaction: The HYPE token briefly hit an all-time high above $73.50 but dropped 15% in the week due to regulatory concerns, a token unlock ($684 million), and sales by Arthur Hayes.

• USDC Dependency: Hyperliquid runs entirely on USDC, issued by the regulated US company Circle. Regulators could pressure Circle to restrict flows to non-compliant platforms – a structural chokepoint.
• Competitive Advantage: Regulated exchanges can never match Hyperliquid's flexibility (e.g., weekend trading, exotic assets, high leverage). Hyperliquid remains attractive for the global, crypto-native trader.

1. Retreat to Permissionless Ethos: Risk of regulatory isolation.
2. Build Compliant On-Ramps: Risk of self-cannibalization ("Why not just use Coinbase?").
3. A Third Way: Hyperliquid is pushing a policy initiative, arguing for the superiority of on-chain transparency, and partnering with regulated entities like Grayscale, Bitwise, and Kraken.

• Altcoin PERP Expansion: Kalshi plans 12 more altcoin PERPs, including HYPE. Approval would be both a validation and a competitive threat.
• Volume Migration: Monthly comparison between Hyperliquid and Kalshi volume.
• Clarity Act: Could bring tailored regulation or untenable obligations for Hyperliquid.
• Circle & USDC: Any regulatory move against stablecoin flows to non-compliant platforms would be a risk.
• Token Unlock in November 2026: The next stress test for the buyback mechanism.

The answer is twofold. In the short term, Hyperliquid benefits from the legitimization of the product category. In the long term, however, institutional volume is threatened by regulatory channeling to compliant venues. The market must decide if Hyperliquid is the dominant horse in a growing race or the outsider slowly being left behind.

Summary follows...

In this episode of the Bankless Weekly Rollup, David and Ryan discuss several key topics:

1. Stock Market Recovery: The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high after a V-shaped recovery, driven by the liquidation of a major fund (Ashen Brener) which removed forced selling pressure.

2. MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin: Michael Saylor sold 1,638 BTC ($105M) but Bitcoin barely reacted and even rose – a sign that Saylor is no longer the main marginal pricer of Bitcoin.

3. Ethereum Staking Yield Debate: A proposal from EF researchers (including Justin Drake) suggests burning staking rewards once 50% of ETH is staked, effectively driving yields to zero. Proponents argue Ethereum overpays for security and that unlimited staking harms ETH's monetary properties. Opponents (DeFi builders, Lido, Etherfi) warn it would crush solo stakers, scare institutions, and undermine credibility. The hosts believe the proposal is dead in the water ( <5% chance) given strong industry pushback.

4. Cold Card Exploit: A vulnerability in Coldcard's random number generator allowed hackers to brute-force seed phrases, draining over $130M in BTC from offline wallets. Victims did everything right but still lost funds – raising serious questions about self-custody in the age of AI-powered attacks.

5. Other News: Uniswap launches its own token launchpad (pools), the Clarity Act's chances drop to 15%, Cloudflare introduces wallets to protect content from AI bots, Near enables staking for AI inference, and Polymarket seeks a $20B+ valuation.

Overall Market Sentiment: The hosts feel crypto is in a waiting game – meme coins dominate, DeFi growth is slow, and fundamental progress (RWA tokenization, scaling) is incremental. Until the AI trade cools, crypto may remain in the background.

Summary follows...

This video discusses the massive opportunities and changes driven by AI, AGI, and chips. The speaker analyzes where the money is flowing in the age of AI and how to position oneself.

Computing Costs Skyrocket

• In 2025, a gigawatt of compute costs $50 billion, rising to $60 billion in 2026 and $73 billion in 2027.
• Growth rate of about 20–22% YoY.
• Bottlenecks include not just GPUs and servers, but also power supply, cooling, and maintenance.

GPU Rental Market Booms

• H100 GPUs are not obsolete; they are generating more revenue than ever.
• Prices for Blackwell clusters doubled from $2 to $4 per GPU hour in seven months.

SpaceX and Tesla's Terra Fab

• Elon Musk and Tesla plan the world's largest factory: 100 million sq ft (approx. 9.3 million m²) in Texas.
• Goal: Terawatt of compute, split into two product lines:
  • 25% for Tesla Optimus robots
  • 75% for Starship space missions
• Starting 2026, space-based data centers using Nvidia Vera Rubin chips are planned.

High Growth Rates at SpaceX

• SpaceX projects $100 billion in annual revenue by year-end.
• Three scenarios for monthly compute leasing revenue:
  • Conservative: $5.8–7.1 billion
  • Base: $7.5–9.2 billion
  • Optimistic: $10–11.7 billion
• CAGR of 170.4% to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2029.

Starlink and Telecom Market

• Starlink has over 12 million active subscribers and is growing rapidly.
• CEO Gwynne Shotwell targets $600 billion through partnerships with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile to eliminate "dead zones."

Company Valuations and Stock Trends

• Nvidia's P/E ratio is at its lowest (around 20), despite critics calling AI a "bubble."
• Tesla is seen as a "co-option on SpaceX" as the latter currently steals the spotlight.
• Google loses four top AI scientists but invests in companies like Anthropic and SpaceX.

AI Agents and Crypto

• AI agents increasingly use cryptocurrencies (e.g., Base from Coinbase) since banks are unsuitable.
• Base chain overtakes Solana and Polygon in cumulative transactions (over 150 million AI agent transactions).

Regulation and Risks

• The White House requires OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta to review AI models 30 days before release.
• 1,130 AI researchers call for slowing AI development due to loss of control.
• The speaker warns that slowing down could give China an advantage.

Outlook: End of Source Code?

• AI could soon convert legacy code (like COBOL or Pascal) directly into binaries, marking the end of traditional software development.

The chip and AI market offers enormous opportunities, but also risks from high costs, regulation, and geopolitical tensions. To position yourself, focus on Nvidia, SpaceX, and AI agent platforms.

• The ECM Aesthetika is a dual boiler with volumetric dosing, priced around €4,000.
• It sets benchmarks in many areas and can keep up with more expensive top machines (Sanremo, La Marzocco) – often even outperforming them.

• Only 6.5 to 7 minutes heat-up time thanks to a self-developed saturated brew group with its own heating element.
• Achieved by overheating and then letting the user cool the machine down.

• Very stable temperatures in KM and WBC protocols (5 and 14 consecutive shots).
• Excellent standard deviation – among the best machines tested in the last 10 years.

• Three programmable buttons for individual water amounts.
• Very good consistency even under load and after recalibration (7/10 points).
• Many other dual boilers (e.g., La Marzocco Linea Micra) lack volumetric dosing – only the more expensive GS3 offers it.

• High-quality, robust, solid build – typical ECM, including accessories.
• Espresso: solid 9-bar brew profile, no complex flow profiling, but can brew almost all coffees very well.

• Very powerful steam reaches milk temperature in just 24 seconds, with a nice rolling phase for creamy foam.
• 2-liter boiler maintains performance through many steaming cycles – ideal for small cafés or events.
• Easy connection to drainage and water supply (rotary pump) for continuous operation.

• Overall a top espresso machine with an excellent balance of temperature, volumetric dosing, and steam – a clear recommendation for serious espresso enthusiasts.
• Further details in the long video and test article.

• The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high (~5,700 points), driven by strong tech stocks (Nasdaq +4% for the week).
• Tech and Consumer Cyclicals dominate; Energy declines due to falling oil prices (hopes for an Iran deal).
• Earnings Season Highlights:
  • Visa, Mastercard – solid results
  • Microsoft (+10%), Amazon (+16%) – strong AI-driven earnings
  • Palantir (+29% in one day) – surprise rally
  • Eli Lilly – continues to be a pharma favorite
  • Apple, Tesla, Coinbase, Strategy – disappointed or were sold off
• Michael Burry shorted Palantir and Tesla – with mixed success.

• Leobold Aschenbrenner (former OpenAI employee) suffered massive losses in July due to 4-5x leverage. Ken Griffin (Citadel) bought the portfolio.
• Despite the setback, the fund is said to be still up 80% (thanks to an Anthropic bet).
• Lesson: Leverage is extremely risky. Successful investing requires unpopular decisions – the opposite of being an influencer.

• Bitcoin has underperformed the Nasdaq by 55% since January 2025, despite seemingly favorable conditions (pro-crypto administration, Fed, SEC).
• Cold Card Hack: Over $100M stolen due to a weak random number generator. Debate about Bitcoin's overall security.
• Outlook: Missing narrative and use case – dependency on Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) and potential new catalysts.

• Critique of an article calling compound interest a fairy tale – from the author's perspective, untenable.
• Own strategy:
  • Fiat as a 'melting ice cube' – necessary safety buffer (1-3 months of expenses)
  • Base: broad ETFs (MSCI World) + sector weighting (e.g., cyclical vs. defensive)
  • Individual stocks only after pullbacks – current opportunities in:
    1. AI chips (after Q2 correction)
    2. Robotics (megatrend)
    3. Pharma (M&A, e.g., Eli Lilly)
  • Risk management: Don't jump between asset classes; reallocate within the portfolio.

• Upcoming events: Berkshire Hathaway, Nvidia earnings.
• Feedback on format welcome – weekly recap or prefer shorts?