
CLARITY Deal Coming?! Bitcoin’s Huge Week & FOMC Incoming!
Markets are under pressure: rising oil prices and bond yields, persistent inflation, and the threat of AI. This is a pivotal week, with two major events on the horizon: the vote on the Clarity Act in the US Senate and the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. Both could have massive implications for crypto and traditional markets.
Last Week's Recap- Monday: Announcement of the "Laptop" memecoin by Hunter Biden, another questionable celebrity memecoin.
- Tuesday: China reports a trade surplus of $119 billion.
- Wednesday: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly challenges yen short-sellers. A former Anthropic researcher warns AI could wipe out humanity by the end of the decade. Brent crude oil rises to $100 per barrel. US bond yields hit their highest since Trump's inauguration.
- Thursday: Trump promises a $5,000 dividend to every US adult if Republicans win Congress. The "Laptop" memecoin launches and crashes 97.8% within an hour.
- Friday: Houthi rebels capture the strategically important region of Midi on the Red Sea coast. US diesel prices break $6 per gallon for the first time. The August CPI comes in mostly as expected but remains elevated.
- Weekend/Monday: Larry Ellison (Oracle) cancels a planned $7.5 billion stock sale. The CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and X.AI jointly call for a slowdown in AI development.
1. Clarity Act (US Senate Vote)
- This is a Cloture vote (a procedural vote to end debate). It requires 60 votes to pass.
- With 53 Republicans in the Senate, 7 Democratic votes are needed.
- A breakthrough occurred: Republicans agreed to 80% of the Democrats' demands, especially on stricter ethics rules (e.g., putting crypto holdings in a blind trust). Rules on stablecoin yields and DeFi were also adjusted.
- Polymarket puts the odds of passage at 31%.
2. FOMC (Federal Reserve Meeting)
- 80-87% of the market expects a 25 basis point rate hike.
- The economic data strongly supports this: strong jobs report (162,000 new jobs), high inflation (CPI at 4%, PCE at 3.4%), and rising energy prices.
- Fed Chair Kevin Walsh is in a tough spot: not raising rates could damage the Fed's credibility, while raising them would put him at odds with President Trump, who is demanding lower rates.
- A potential oil price shock from attacks on Saudi pipelines and instability in Yemen adds further inflationary pressure.
- Gwart ironically criticizes Hunter Biden's memecoin: "I can't stand it when people like Hunter Biden make a mockery of our industry and siphon liquidity and mind share from serious projects like Boner, Fartcoin, and Bike Tyson."
- Michael J. Kramer highlights that the 30-year US Treasury bond yields more (5.3%) than the Greek one (4.8%) – a sign of market distrust towards the US.
- Houthi rebels are reportedly using Claude (AI) for programming ballistic missiles – another sign of AI's pervasiveness.
- Tuesday & Wednesday: FOMC meeting with a rate decision and press conference on Wednesday.
- Tuesday : Cloture vote on the Clarity Act.
- Thursday: Start of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting.
- Friday: BOJ rate decision (another rate hike is expected).






