Bitcoin2Go|09. Juli
Bitcoin: We Must Become Active! - Taxes, War & Crash Risks
📉 Bitcoin Price & Technical Analysis
- Bitcoin hovers around $63,000 and struggles to break the 200 EMA.
- Recovery is flattening; a move above $67,000 remains unlikely.
- Spot demand is absent; the market is leveraged and oversensitive.
- Michael Saylor sold 3,600 BTC (~$216M) – a warning sign of liquidity needs.
- Sales are strategically small but psychologically impactful.
- Treasury vs. Commerce Department: Who manages the strategic Bitcoin reserve?
- Justice Department seeks legal clarity – progress is slow.
- Hype for a mega bull run has faded; this is a paradigm shift requiring time.
- India's central bank hints at stricter rules – typical bear-market narrative.
- A full ban is unlikely due to existing gray-market usage.
- Effective since July 1: Exchanges like Sendex stop services for European users.
- MiCA 2.0 focuses on stablecoins.
- Recommendation: use a personal wallet (e.g., Ledger with discount code) and have alternative exchanges ready.
- Proposed: abolish the 1-year holding period and tax crypto like stocks (25% withholding tax).
- Cabinet decision made; draft law follows – earliest effect 2027.
- Act now: Send a template letter to your local MP (template by Frank Schäffler).
- Support the petition at prohaltefrist.de.
- AI overinvestment: Chipmakers (Micron, Samsung) report record profits but cautious outlooks.
- High leverage (20x) in Korean ETFs – liquidation risk.
- Goldman Sachs sees DRAM/NAND shortages until Q2 2027.
- Fed views AI as inflationary short-term but deflationary long-term.
- Fed: No rate cuts expected; market prices in two hikes.
- Japan: High debt, weak yen, aging population – fragile economy.
- Iran/USA: Trump oscillates between escalation and deals – temporary market jitters.
- Bitcoin dominance stable; Altcoin Season Index slightly up.
- Short-term winners: Arbitrum, Optimism, Avalanche.
- Losers: Memecoins (e.g., Cats) – high risk.
- Outlook: Sideways to slightly bullish; next resistance at $65,000–$67,000. A drop below $55,000 is unlikely.
📌 Action Item: Stay informed on tax changes, support the petition, contact your representatives – every voice matters!
