Welcome to Nofinity

Bitcoin Price: Sideways with Correction Risk

• Bitcoin trades just above $83,000, but lacks clear direction.
• Spot demand is weak, futures dominate – a warning sign (yellow areas = spot dominance missing).
• Profit-taking is high; short-term holders are selling.
• Next support: $80,000–$81,000 (4-hour EMA and cloud), then $77,000.
• Long-term data: Long-term holder cluster at $84,000–$85,000 acts as resistance, MVRV peak at $96,000.
• Sideways phases previously ended with strong breakouts, but without spot buying, the rally remains fragile.

ETF Data and Regulation

• Bitcoin ETFs saw recent outflows, after weak inflows – annual basis still $5 billion in outflows.
• SEC & CFTC: Innovation Exemption Act (tokenization) and Crypto Market Rules – positive signs, but not law (risky if leadership changes).
• EU (MiCA 2.0/3.0): Stricter rules for stablecoins, unregulated issuers like Tether are cut out; US favors private stablecoins, EU pushes CBDC.

Crypto Taxes: Holding Period Abolition from 2027?

• BMF draft: Abolition of holding period for crypto from 2027/2028, grandfathering until then.
• Important dates: Associations can comment until October 6, 2026, cabinet meeting on October 14.
• Risky: Flat 50% taxation if acquisition costs are missing – document transactions now (tools like Cointracking).
• Politicians (e.g., Armin Laschet) see constitutional issues – not decided yet.

Altcoins and Portfolio Challenge

• Altcoins are hot, Fear & Greed at 74 – risk of overheating.
• Quant +300% in 7 days; possible wallet movements from a founder (selling pressure?).
• Chainlink (CIP launch), Aave (token buyback as new model) – DeFi approaches equity models.
• Portfolio Challenge (10k–100k €): Bought Service Now and Circle – slightly in the red, updates from Monday.

Macro and Markets

• S&P 500: 56% of stocks below 200-day line – weakness in breadth, AI bubble?
• Treasuries: Yields at very high levels, pressure on loans and real estate.
• Fed expectations: Market expects a pause rather than a hike – dependent on upcoming data.
• AI: White House mandates the term "Super Intelligence" – critical due to ties to Trump family (domain deals).

Conclusion

• Short-term: Correction likely (towards $80,000–$81,000), long-term bullish.
• Bear markets are getting shorter; AI could accelerate cycles.
• Next videos: Portfolio update (Monday), analysis (Thursday).

Shawn Ryan on His Extraordinary Journey: From Navy SEAL to Podcast Pioneer and Spiritual Seeker

In this deep conversation, Shawn Ryan shares his moving life story and current spiritual struggles. From elite soldier to the world's most successful podcaster – and then to an existential confrontation with the supernatural.

From Navy SEAL to CIA Contractor

• Enlisted in the US Navy at age 17, completing a demanding SEAL training pipeline (over 9 months just for BUDS)
• Deployments to Haiti (2004), Afghanistan (after Operation Red Wings), and Iraq
• After his military service, made an unsuccessful attempt as a real estate agent before transitioning to government work
• Worked as a contractor for the CIA, including through Blackwater, and later directly for the agency

Life in Colombia and the Dark Phase

• After his CIA stint, he moved to Medellín, Colombia – in search of the next adrenaline rush
• Got involved in drug networks: not as a dealer, but as a networker analyzing the structures
• The police planted a bug outside his apartment – a dramatic escape within just 12 hours
• A call to his mother on Mother's Day (a perceived drug overdose) became a turning point

The Long Road to Healing

• He started therapy to set an example for his opioid-addicted best friend
• Ibogaine (a plant-based psychedelic from Gabon, Africa) helped him overcome his addictions
• The first ibogaine journey was transformative: he gave up alcohol and sleeping pills and found inner peace
• The second journey, however, ended in a hellish experience – total emptiness and overwhelming fear

The Spiritual Crisis: 'A Battle for My Soul'

• After the second ibogaine experience, disturbing phenomena followed:
  • Nightmares and 'coincidences' meant to destroy his family
  • A picture frame fell off the wall during a prayer
  • An allergic reaction immediately after receiving communion in church
• He underwent several exorcisms (he speaks of 'oppression,' not possession)
• An experienced Marine veteran saw his body contort inhumanly during the second ibogaine journey
• The battle for his soul is more real to him than anything else – it has strengthened his Catholic faith and re-baptism

The Dark Side of Podcasting Success

• His podcast reaches 150-200 million views per month – yet it doesn't appear in YouTube's 'popular podcasts' list
• He suspects that agents are inserted as guests to plant narratives (e.g., about Russian nuclear weapons)
• He has never released some episodes – because guests made false claims (e.g., about COVID vaccine patents)
• He warns: Political camps co-opt podcasters – even invitations to the White House can serve as 'capture'

His Mission Today

• Political disillusionment: He supported Trump but is now skeptical – all politicians are 'liars'
• Critique of US foreign policy: Shawn sees no positive outcomes for America, wonders if the US is losing its superpower status
• Planned Bible series: He wants to go through every book of the Bible with experts – despite losing advertisers
• Family priority: He struggles daily with the tension between business success and time with his children
• Integrity and authenticity: He wants to show that you can ask questions and stand by your convictions – even if it brings short-term disadvantages

Final Thoughts

Shawn Ryan is an authentic and courageous person who shares his story without filters. His journey from elite soldier to spiritual seeker shows: True strength lies not only in fighting but also in letting go and searching for your own path.

Overview

The speaker analyzes the current market situation of Bitcoin at around $83,000 and calls his assessment “dubious speculation.” He admits he was wrong – he did not expect the breakout above this level.

The Key Level $83,000

• $83,000 acts as a critical line: Holding this level would support the bullish case, while a loss could trigger a rapid decline, similar to previous fakeouts (e.g., 2015, 2020).
• Historically, Bitcoin tends to weaken in Q4 of mid-cycle years. The new all-time high above $83,000 makes this forecast uncertain.
• Two scenarios: Either $83,000 is a genuine breakout, or it is a fakeout before a typical Q4 pullback.

Macroeconomic Context

• PCE data: Core PCE came in at 3.0% (consensus 3.4%), headline at 3.4% (expected 3.8%). Despite seemingly weak inflation, long-dated bond yields rose (30-year yield hit new highs) – possibly due to methodology changes.
• Fed and yields: Low inflation figures reduce the chance of a rate hike in October. The bond market may interpret this as the Fed not fighting inflation enough, driving yields higher.
• Oil and Gold: Oil correlated with Bitcoin since July (both bottomed simultaneously). Gold typically weakens until October in mid-cycle years before forming a bottom.
• Russell 2000: Fell 8% due to rising yields, while the S&P stays near all-time highs – similar to 2018. This pattern could lead to a growth scare later in Q4.

Bitcoin’s Relationship with Yields

• The speaker shows that Bitcoin in 2025/26 tends to fall when the 10-year yield drops and rise when it climbs. A yield decline driven by recession fears could weigh on Bitcoin.
• Historically, Bitcoin often dropped shortly after yields peaked and after Gold bottomed. With Bitcoin at a new high, this dynamic is unclear.

Conclusion and Outlook

• $83,000 remains the focus: Holding this level would reinforce the bullish narrative; a break could trigger a quick downside resolution.
• The speaker remains ambivalent and stresses that the market does not have to conform to his expectations. Key macro data (Friday’s jobs report) could provide clarity.
• He invites views to the “Investing Through the Cycles” conference on November 21, with details in the description.

📊 What a 'Green' September Actually Means for October

In this video, the host breaks down the market situation after an unexpectedly strong September and asks whether October should be feared. He covers stocks, crypto, and AI names.

📈 Historical Context

• A green September is rare: only 44 out of 100 years ended positive in September.
• In the last 20 years, when September was green, October was also green in over 60% of cases.
• Red Octobers occurred in 2008 (financial crisis), 2012, and 2018 – often linked to rate fears or weak fundamentals.

⚡ Crypto & Bitcoin

• Bitcoin must hold the critical level of $82,000. Today it spiked to $85,600 but was quickly sold off.
• The host suspects manipulative moves by large players ("nefarious actor").
• Ethereum is likely to chop sideways until Bitcoin picks a direction.
• October is historically a strong month for crypto, with many announcements and catalysts.

🤖 AI Stocks & Companies

• Micron reported earnings after the close – revenue and EPS beat expectations. The stock reaction was muted initially.
• Nvidia is hovering near its 200-day moving average – a good technical sign. As long as AI trends stay intact, there's more upside.
• Palantir is described as "loved" but volatile. A potential entry zone is at $337, currently around $354.
• Tesla is reportedly sold out, and TikTok trends around FSD (over 15 billion miles) are driving demand.
• SpaceX & Tesla pair chart: The ratio is historically low at 2.31. The host expects a rebound as Tesla looks cheap.

📉 Individual Trades & Market Technique

• Many stocks show clear buy signals despite short-term pullbacks – e.g., STRC ($99, near $100) and AMD.
• The host warns against chasing rips. Patience and proper entry levels are key.
• AI agents will increasingly use networks like Salana/USDC for payments – a long-term tailwind.

🏦 Outlook

• The market is heavily driven by AI and AI investments. Companies that don't invest will be left behind.
• Micron is seen as a long-term "$1,000 stock" – but over 2–3 years.
• The tone is cautiously optimistic, with emphasis on waiting for good entries.

Note: Not financial advice. The host repeatedly states that all claims are based on publicly available chart data.

Chinese Tech/Internet Stocks: Value Trap or Opportunity?

• The China Internet ETF is down after 13 years – despite strong companies like Tencent, JD.com, and Alibaba.
• The Top-20 analysis shows: low P/E ratios, high cash balances, profitable business models, and continued growth.
• The question remains: How much risk are you willing to take for this value?

Selected Stocks at a Glance

• Tencent: P/E of 15, dividends, buybacks, double-digit growth, and a strong ecosystem. Attractive, but volatile.
• Alibaba: AI promise and e-commerce ecosystem exist, but legacy cash flows are weakening. Currently too expensive, more of a bet.
• PDD Holdings: Very cheap, lots of cash, and reportedly building a “new Pinduoduo.” Interesting, but rather hidden future potential.
• Meituan: Competitive pressure is causing losses. One-third of market cap is covered by cash, but profitable growth remains a big “if.”
• NetEase: Mature company with P/E of 15, dividends, and buybacks – fairly valued, but no clear buy signal.
• Lenovo: AI boom, profitable, P/E of 15, but highly dependent on AI growth in China.
• KE Holdings: Stable and profitable, but P/E of 26 and no “miracle” in sight.
• JD.com: Strong logistics as a moat, buybacks, growing dividend – already in the portfolio.
• Trip.com: Travel monopoly, 50% below 52-week high, P/E of 10, still growing. The recent fine weighs on margins, but the moat remains.
• Baidu: Market cap of ~$30B vs. ~$40B cash/book value – an AI, cloud, and robotaxi bet at a crazy low price.
• Kuaishou: Holds 68% of Kling AI (AI video generator, +200% growth). This means you get the AI bet almost “for free” at a P/E of around 10.
• Other names like Full Truck Alliance, JD Health, Tencent Music, Bilibili, GDS Holdings were also reviewed – the smaller the company, the harder the valuation.

Strategy

• Core idea: Buy when sentiment is extremely negative, sell when euphoria returns.
• For Chinese stocks, large heavyweights like Tencent, JD.com, or PDD are safer than small caps.
• An ETF investment offers an easy way to participate broadly in China and use sentiment swings.
• Realistic target: 50% return in 3 years – with disciplined position sizing and contrarian action.

Risks

• VIE structure: Investors do not own the Chinese company directly, but a contractual structure via Cayman/Hong Kong. This creates legal and liquidity risks.
• Fake data: Fraud like Luckin Coffee happens, but not all Chinese companies are dishonest.
• Geopolitics/Taiwan: A potential conflict could change everything. The time horizon is crucial.
• US investors: Sanction risk is much higher for US investors. European investors should still carefully check their broker and custodian.

Conclusion

• Chinese stocks are speculative, but interesting at current valuations.
• Those who trade Tencent, JD.com, PDD & Co. countercyclically with clear profit and stop-loss zones can benefit from the value opportunity – without blindly taking excessive risk.

Background

Each year, the Federal Ministry of Labor sets the calculation figures for social insurance. The draft for 2027 brings notable increases, especially for high earners in health and long-term care insurance.

Statutory Pension Insurance (Rentenversicherung)

• Average earnings rise from €51,944 (2026) to €53,452 (+2.9%).
  → If your salary stagnates, you earn fewer pension points. You need a 2.9% raise just to keep your points stable.
• Contribution assessment ceiling rises from €101,400 to €106,200 (+4.7%).
  → Maximum contribution: €9,877 (€446 more than in 2026). Income above the ceiling is contribution-free but does not earn additional pension points.

Health and Long-Term Care Insurance

• Contribution assessment ceiling jumps from €69,750 to €76,500 (+9.7%).
  Reason: The GKV Contribution Rate Stabilization Act adds a one-time extra of €300 per month (€3,600 per year) on top.
• Compulsory insurance threshold for switching to private health insurance rises from €77,400 to €84,150.

Impact on Your Contributions

• At €69,750 annual income → no change.
• At €80,000 → +5% more contributions.
• Above €106,200 → +7% more contributions.

These increases come on top of regular contribution rate adjustments (e.g., rising supplementary contributions, a likely higher pension contribution rate from 2028, and possibly a higher long-term care surcharge for the childless).