Benjamin Cowen|29. Mai
Bitcoin: The Window of Weakness
Current Market Status and 200-Day Moving Average
- Bitcoin is currently trading around $73,000, down $10,000 over the past few weeks.
- The rejection occurred precisely at the 200-day moving average, a historical resistance level (as seen in 2018 and 2022).
- The midterm year (year three of the 4-year cycle) is classically the main window of weakness for Bitcoin.
- Within this weak year, there are pockets of strength that historically occur in specific months.
- End of the Post-Halving Year (Year 4): First low, often not yet recognized as a bear market.
- February: Second low (e.g., 2014, 2018, 2022). Not always exact, can shift by a few days.
- April: Often a higher low (2018), sometimes a lower low (2014).
- For 2026: Low on March 29 (vs. early April) confirms the pattern.
- Historically (2014, 2018, 2022), June was another low point.
- Potential Trigger: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to raise rates in June. There is precedent (August 2024) for Bitcoin bottoming shortly after BoJ decisions.
- Window of Weakness remains open until mid/late June.
- A June low could be followed by a counter-trend rally in July (historically confirmed).
- Warning: Even this rally might be followed by a final capitulation in Q4 (September/October) – as in almost every midterm year.
- Advice: Ignore Bitcoin during the first half of the midterm year. Focus on identifying real lows in the second half.
- Alternative Investments: Stocks, international markets, and energy are at all-time highs – midterm years offer other opportunities.
- Don't panic-sell in June. A July rally is likely.
- The true low is probably in Q4 – that will be the time to pivot into the next bull market.
