Benjamin Cowen|31. Aug.
Bitcoin Stalls at the 50 Week Moving Average
Current Situation: Bitcoin at the 50-Week Moving Average
Bitcoin has stalled at the 50-week moving average (50W MA), a key level that historically marks either the end of a bear market (if broken through) or its continuation (if rejected).
Historical Context and Recurring Patterns- Bear Market Rallies: In past bear markets (e.g., 2014/15, 2018, 2022), similar rallies from summer lows occurred, often stalling or reversing at the 50W MA.
- Comparison to 2018: The current rally shows striking similarities:
- Both in 2018 and 2026, Bitcoin took exactly 51 four-hour candles from the breakout point to the 50W MA.
- Both rallies from the summer low were roughly 40%.
- Caution Against Premature Conclusions: A stall at the 50W MA does not guarantee rejection – even in bull markets, the price often consolidates here before breaking higher.
- Seasonal Pattern: In the last three cycles, the final market cycle bottom occurred only after the US midterm elections (early November). An October low is possible but not guaranteed.
- Pre-Halving vs. Midterm Year: All sustainable breakouts above the 50W MA happened in the pre-halving year (e.g., 2015, 2019, 2023), not the midterm year. The current timing (August of the midterm year) is historically unusual.
- Strategy: The analyst still recommends starting to buy after the summer low – even if short-term losses occur. In 2018 and 2022, this strategy proved profitable despite initial drawdowns.
Whether Bitcoin has definitively ended its bear market remains uncertain. The rally is unprecedented in strength for a midterm year, but similar patterns (40% rallies, rejection at the 50W MA) have occurred before. Waiting until after the midterms might provide more clarity.
