Welcome to Nofinity

📉 Bitcoin & Macro Overview: A Week of Extremes

Bitcoin chopped around the low $62k mark last week, while stocks hit new highs and U.S. inflation data (CPI & PPI) came in cooler than expected. This lowers the probability of a rate hike in September to 32%. However, weak retail sales and consumer sentiment data point to a K-shaped economic recovery.

• Iran/USA: An alleged assassination plot against Donald Trump was uncovered, leading to bizarre scenes (hiding in a food truck). Iran is also increasingly using underwater drones against ships.
• Japan: GDP figures disappointed, and the 10-year bond yield hit its highest level since 1996. The Bank of Japan's intervention to support the yen showed little effect.
• Norway's Sovereign Fund: The nearly $2 trillion fund has a massive concentration risk in the AI sector due to its mandate to invest index-based.

🔒 Crypto-Specific News: Good & Bad News

The series of security incidents continues:

• Trezor: A data leak at their shipping partner ShipMonk exposed names, phone numbers, and home addresses of roughly 14,000 customers. Private keys and seed phrases remained safe, but phishing attacks have already begun. A special risk is $5 wrench attacks (physical extortion).
• Coldcard: There was a recent exploit where Bitcoin was stolen.
• SafePal: This manufacturer also reported a security incident.

⚠️ Conclusion: Self-custody is coming under increasing pressure. It raises the question of whether Bitcoin ETFs are the safer alternative for many.

Tether (USDT) received a full, independent financial audit from KPMG US – with an unqualified clean opinion.

Key Facts | 🇩🇪 German | 🇬🇧 English

• | Reserve surplus: $6.8 billion over liabilities (as of Dec 31, 2025) | Reserveüberschuss: 6,8 Mrd. US-Dollar über den Verbindlichkeiten (Stand: 31. Dezember 2025)
• | KPMG physically counted the gold bars | KPMG zählte sogar physisch die Goldbarren
• | Critique: The audit only covers through Dec 31, 2025 – roughly 8 months old. | Kritik: Der Audit deckt nur den Zeitraum bis Ende 2025 ab – etwa 8 Monate alt.

This event removes the biggest institutional objection to holding or accepting USDT. The "Tether truthers" are temporarily silenced.

📊 Technical Analysis (TA) by Aaron

• Bitcoin (BTC): Strongly bearish below the TBO cloud. Next support at $62,275 (pivot from August 1st). A break below could accelerate the fall to $57,800.
• Ethereum (ETH): Chopping in bullish consolidation, but with weakening momentum.
• Dollar Index (DXY): Lost a key support level – this is bullish for stocks.
• Gold: Bullish consolidation, but a short-term retracement to test support is expected.

📅 Key Dates for Next Week

🐦 Tweets of the Week

• Matthias Steel: "Trump messed up so bad that AOC thinks she has a chance in 2028."
• Eric Balchunas: "52% of Gen Z have redirected their investment funds to sports betting." (Financial Nihilism).
• Gwart: "The Clarity Act failed because the last clause required politicians to stop scamming people – and they refused."

The Bitcoin price has surged from $68,000 to $87,000 in just two weeks, approaching the predicted October target of $90,000. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing strong inflows, and long-term holders have significantly reduced their selling, which is considered a bullish signal. The price has broken through the 50-week moving average, suggesting further gains, while institutional investors are increasingly using MicroStrategy to gain exposure to Bitcoin. The purchasing power of the US dollar continues to decline due to inflation.

If building your own trading bot feels overwhelming, there are professional developers who have done it for free on GitHub. This video covers my top three repositories for executing trades, along with setup and usage tips.

• Function: Free, open-source crypto trading bot in Python, supporting all major exchanges and controlled via web UI or Telegram.
• Features: Backtesting, plotting, money management, and machine learning for strategy optimization.
• Key Point: Beginner-friendly with pre-built parameters and risk settings. Also supports stocks, commodities, and FX via exchanges like Binance or Hyperliquid.
• Live Trading: Control via Telegram commands (e.g., /performance, /start, /stop). Includes built-in backtesting with historical data and a dry run feature.
• Conclusion: Perfect for those wanting a ready-to-use solution without deep programming.

• Function: Personal trading agent with self-improving features to generate and test strategies.
• Features: Answer market questions, backtest, review trades, read institutional filings, run analyst teams, and access a library of over 450 pre-built alpha factors.
• Application: Ideal as a research and strategy development tool before live trading. Can connect to Alpaca for paper trading.
• Example: Tested momentum strategies for NVDA, META, AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN, backtested with realistic fees, and set up paper trading with $100k.

• Function: AI trading terminal for stocks, commodities, forex, and crypto.
• Features: Autopilot mode, no need for personal hardware – everything runs on their servers. Provides a dashboard with liquidation maps, order books, signal matrix, and orchestration.
• Application: Create and execute strategies directly via the web interface on Hyperliquid or other exchanges.
• Advantage: Very user-friendly as the infrastructure is pre-built.

• Recommendation: Try all three repos as they serve different purposes. You can combine tools, e.g., use Vibe Trading for strategy development and Freak Trade for execution.
• Tip: Experiment with paper trading to test strategies risk-free. This is the best way to learn and improve AI trading.
• Additional Info: For setup guides and community access, check the description.

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