Welcome to Nofinity

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In this episode of Bankless, David Hoffman speaks with Mo Jalil and Oscar Thorne, co‑founders of ETH Systems – a new spin‑off from the Ethereum Foundation focused on Ethereum, institutions, and privacy.

• Ethereum is a great neutral base layer, but without built‑in privacy, institutions cannot use it.
• Institutions need confidentiality for their business and must remain compliant – both require cryptography.
• Currently they use private networks because public blockchains lack privacy, even though Ethereum offers deep liquidity and new business opportunities.

• Mo Jalil has a traditional finance background (Goldman Sachs, hedge funds) and led APAC BD at the Ethereum Foundation. He realized institutions need privacy to use public Ethereum.
• Oscar Thorne has been in crypto for ~10 years, focusing on privacy and protocol design (Status, R&D labs). He wrote a book on proof systems and built client‑side proving tooling.
• Together they started the Institutional Privacy Task Force at the EF, now spun out as ETH Systems.

• Interdealer compression: A tier‑1 investment bank wants to net trades without an expensive third party – this requires privacy on a shared state like Ethereum.
• Multi‑party private payments: Some jurisdictions require sender, receiver, auditor, and government as participants. This couldn’t be done privately and performantly for years – ETH Systems found a solution.
• Massive scale: One project could roll out to an entire country with tens of millions of users.

• Many current solutions are bespoke because institutions have specific legal and business needs.
• The goal is to extract generic building blocks that become open‑source libraries and a reusable stack.
• ETH Systems follows a two‑track approach: business‑driven (directly helping institutions) and open‑source (strengthening the whole Ethereum ecosystem).

• ETH Systems is a for‑profit company – necessary for sustainable funding and to be a trusted counterparty for institutions.
• Demand is massive and inbound – institutions reach out because they see DeFi’s potential but need privacy and compliance.
• Engagements take 18–24 months, so first products are still in development.

• Financial infrastructure should run invisibly on blockchain: users can trade global stocks without revealing their identity, yet enjoy all DeFi benefits (ownership, transferability, verifiability).
• Privacy means selective disclosure – aggregates like TVL or trading volume remain visible, while individual transactions stay private.
• The bridge between cypherpunks and institutions is narrower than expected: both want censorship resistance, security, and openness – they just speak different languages.

• DeFi protocols should be open to adaptation – ETH Systems seeks collaboration to modify products for institutional users.
• Open‑source contributions are welcome: the team regularly publishes write‑ups and market maps; contributors benefit from high attention from banks.
• More mutual understanding is needed between developers and traditional finance – a continuous feedback loop is essential.

• Bitcoin is fighting to break through $80,000 and shows strong upward momentum. A breakout above $82,000 would open the path toward $90,000.
• A possible correction to $74,000 or to $70,000 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart) is not ruled out. However, no major pullback is expected.
• On-chain data shows many long-term holders sitting in the $82,000 – $86,000 range – this is both a resistance and an important support level.

• Strong spot ETF inflows and broad market movement (altcoins like Solana, VeChain, Polkadot etc.) indicate sustained interest.
• Nvidia earnings beat expectations (revenue $96 billion, positive outlook). This supports the AI sector and the broader stock market, positively impacting Bitcoin.
• The 'Basement Trade' (debasement of fiat money through debas and money printing) is fueling Gold and Bitcoin. Financial repression and potential Treasury buybacks could further increase liquidity.

• PCI data came in slightly hotter than expected – inflation remains an issue. GDP at 1.5% – under pressure.
• The Fed (Kevin Warsh) speaks on Friday – the market expects no major surprises. Labour market data (Nonfarm Payrolls) may be revised.
• M2 money supply and Tether supply are rising – long-term a clear signal for rising asset prices.

• The speaker is considering switching his monthly DCA plan to weekly and investing 10–20% of his cash position over the next 2–3 months into Bitcoin.
• He warns against the 'I told you so' mentality and emphasises that no one knows the future. Regular entry is the best strategy.
• For altcoins, he advises taking profits during strong rallies (e.g., +62% in 7 days) by settingstop-loss limit orders, as the market can turn quickly.

• Sentiment is bullish, but the speaker remains open to a possible correction. In the long run, Bitcoin's ability to debase fiat money makes it a must-have in any portfolio.

• Generative AI is a con – companies sell it as magic, but it's expensive, unreliable cloud software.
• Massive losses: OpenAI lost $20.9 billion last year. No AI company is profitable; they rely on constant subsidies from Big Tech.
• Myths of the AI industry:
  • AI creates enormous economic growth – No, revenues outside OpenAI/Anthropic are tiny (~$22B) against over a trillion in spending.
  • AI will replace all jobs – No economic data supports this. In fact, software quality is deteriorating.
  • US must spend trillions to beat China – There is no race; China already has models.
• Financial reality: It's a „Rotcom Bubble“ – Big Tech (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) invest to fake growth while their core markets stagnate.
• Subsidized usage: Consumers pay far less than actual cost (token consumption). Enterprises resist when charged per token.
• Outlook 2027: Zitron predicts OpenAI's collapse (~2027) when funding stops, triggering a tech depression, stock crashes, and retirement losses.

• Be skeptical of Big Tech promises.
• Hold cash, don't blindly invest in the AI hype.
• Best hedge: Cultivate good relationships – more important than any stock gain.

This session analyzes 21 charts including Bitcoin, crypto, AI stocks, and macro assets, focusing on volatility, support/resistance levels, and the impact of NVIDIA's earnings.

Volatility and Market Overview

• Volatility spikes every 6-8 weeks; currently in a quiet phase. Large spikes often indicate black/gray swan events, like the April 2024 tariff tantrum which offered great opportunities.
• NASDAQ (QQQ): Downtrend is flattening; a turnaround is possible depending on NVIDIA's results.
• S&P 500: Unstoppable due to money printing, though it has volatile moments.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Monster week: The 'Top and Bottom Indicator' exited the blue zone (buying area) since April. The buying opportunity in the bear market is closing.
• Key Level: Price is struggling at $78,847 (Level 7 of the Lila model). Two models show confluence here (Level 4 on ATR).
• Mean Reversion: Very high spike, last seen after the US election in November 2024. A price drop often follows but not immediately. No sell signals on ATR.
• 12-Month Target: The Lila model predicts $111,000–112,000, which is optimistic but uncertain.

Altcoins

• Solana (SOL): Broke above $100 but fell back. Strong resistance at $112 (Level 2). On-chain activity is booming (70% of all blockchain transactions).
• Ethereum (ETH): Resistance at $2,481 (Level 3), a historical level (sell signals since April 2025). However, a buy signal at $2,469 and an upward trend.
• Total Crypto Market Cap: Clean jump, adding $600–650 billion in 5 days – massive wealth creation.

Stocks

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): Outperformed Bitcoin (+40% vs +25%). STRC is recovering from $72 to $97.2.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Historically sells off after earnings. Results: revenue and earnings beat, data center strong. Expectation: price below $21, but a buy zone at $19 (kill box). A miss would have crashed the entire AI market.
• Marvell (MRVL): 'Marvelous Marvell' – from $70–80 to $240, further potential from Google warrants (support at $210–212).
• AMD: Bullish, analyst target $650 in 6-12 months (currently $480). Good entry points near $460.
• Palantir (PLTR): Surprisingly strong despite high short interest from Michael Burry (tripled shorts). TA shows overbought but price isn't falling. Long-term strong, but a pullback is expected.
• Tesla (TSLA): Perplexing – despite the upcoming Cybercab event (Sept 3) and Optimus progress, market shows little interest.
• Copper: 'No-brainer macro trade of the decade', keeps hitting all-time highs, target $10 in 2-3 years.

Others

• SpaceX: Trend turned after IPO (currently $139). High volatility expected.
• Pair Trading: Tesla/SpaceX pair works well (40% more SpaceX shares). Echoar/SpaceX not recommended.
• Palantir vs. Shorts: Remains strong despite high short interest (Michael Burry tripled shorts). Fundamentals (EPS growth) are compelling.

Conclusion

• Patience Then Greed: The video's title reflects the strategy. Many assets (Solana, AMD, Copper) offer long-term opportunities. Short-term caution is advised, especially after the NVIDIA run.
• Upcoming: Next week, Hansy Nelson will discuss AI (Google, Palantir, Tesla, SpaceX).

In this conversation, leading neuroscientist Dr. Richard Davidson tackles the question of why one should meditate instead of using that time for exercise. His core message: You don't have to choose. Both can be combined to maximize benefits.

Key Takeaways & Insights

• Contemplative Aerobics (The Ideal Combination)

  • Exercise boosts neuroplasticity (the brain's ability to adapt). However, it is neutral – it amplifies both positive and negative thoughts.
  • The solution: Combine exercise with a mindful or altruistic mindset.
  • Practical Tip: Before or during your workout, reflect on how your improved health benefits not only yourself but also everyone around you. This turns your workout into a 'radical act of generosity'.

• Scientifically Proven Effects of Just 5 Minutes of Meditation per Day

  • A large randomized controlled trial showed that 5 minutes of meditation for 28 days is sufficient to:
    • Reduce inflammation in the body (measured by IL-6, an inflammatory marker).
    • Improve the immune response to a flu vaccine (higher antibody titers).
    • Induce positive changes in the gut microbiome, specifically in the butyrate pathway, which helps seal the gut lining.
  • These effects were still present at a 6-month follow-up.

• The Four Pillars of Well-Being (from the book "Born to Flourish")

  1. Awareness: Being present in the moment and cultivating meta-awareness – knowing what your mind is doing.
  2. Connection: Cultivating qualities like appreciation, gratitude, kindness, and compassion.
  3. Insight: Recognizing your personal life narrative (the 'self') and changing your relationship to it rather than fighting it.
  4. Purpose: Clarifying your values and imbuing even mundane tasks (like scooping cat litter) with a transcendent meaning.

• Mindset for Children: The best way to teach these skills to children is to embody them yourself, serving as a calm and resilient role model.

• Book Recommendation: "Born to Flourish" by Dr. Richard Davidson & Courtland Dahl.

• App Recommendation: "Healthy Minds Program" – completely free, no paywall, offers guided exercises for the four pillars.