Benjamin Cowen|16. Juli
Bitcoin Market Cycles
Introduction
In this video, an experienced crypto analyst examines the current Bitcoin market cycles and compares them with historical data.
Key Charts & Insights- ROI from the Low: Current cycle (day 1333) is about 100 days before the historical bottom (1436/1432 days).
- ROI after Cycle Peak: Currently day 283; previous bear markets ended after 364–406 days.
- Presidential Cycle: Bitcoin under Biden follows a similar pattern as under Trump – summer decline, rally in August/September, Q4 bottom.
- Midterm Years: 2026 mirrors 2014, 2018, 2022; July often brings relief (1 standard deviation above average).
- Lows and Highs: February low, higher low in March/April, lower low in June, lower high in May – all like in 2018.
- No Capitulation: Instead of a price capitulation event (like 2020), we are experiencing time-based capitulation – that was the base case.
- Social Interest currently at 0.25 – identical to July 2018, but only half of July 2022 (0.5).
- YouTube views are around 350,000/day vs. 1 million/day in July 2022 – similar to 2018.
"Despite mental gymnastics, Bitcoin sticks to its pattern. DCA (dollar-cost averaging) is better than trying to time the bottom."
The market structure resembles 2019 (liquidity, business cycle), while social interest recalls 2018. The cycle is not different – it just feels different.
